Friday, April 4, 2008

Forward Stock Market (S&P 500) Return Based on Distance from 52 Week High

What is the One Year Forward Return of the S&P 500 (from 1/1/1950 to 3/31/2008) when we are some distance away from the 52 Week High?

If the S&P 500 is 10% or more below the 52 week high, the average return during the 1950 to 2008 period, is around 11.72%, compared to 8.30% if the S&P 500 is within 10% of the 52 week high.

If we go further down to 20% or more below the 52 week high, the S&P 500 one year forward return goes up to 15.75%.

At 30% below the 52 week high, the one year forward return increases to 23.58%.

At 40% below the 52 week high, the average one year forward return is a whopping 31.28%.

So the pattern appears to be true:

The further we are below the S&P 500 52 week high, the better chances we have of having a better than average one year forward return.

If the Index loses 10%, we consider this a correction. If the index loses 20%, we often call this a bear market.

Today's S&P 500 Index Value

As of April 3, 2008, the S&P 500 is 1369.31, and the 52 week high is 1576.09.

This means that the S&P 500 is currently around 13% below the 52 week high.

While a greater percentage below the 52 week high would be ideal, 13% below the 52 week high is not bad, if we wish to invest for at least one year or more.


Anonymous said...

I would like to see the same study done in reverse: the market's outlook relative to its position above its 52 week low. Then obviously, combine the two studies for full effect.

techfarmer said...

Thank you for the comment.

I have done research regarding S&P 500 Bottom Indicator Based on Extension from 52 Week Low and 52 Week High.