Thursday, October 9, 2008

Time for a Stock Market Short Covering Rally?

The Stock Market as represented by the S&P 500 has been going down for sometime and the S&P 500 is now at 970.97.

Is it time for a (short covering) rally?

The current levels appear to be low enough for some bargain hunters to step in, and the shorts to start covering, starting a rally.

  1. The S&P 500 (as of close of Wednesday, October 8) when displayed on a Point and Figure Chart , shows a Bullish Pattern, the Long Tail Down. (BULLISH)
  2. The Stocks above 50 Day Moving Average is an extremely low 1.20% (BULLISH)
  3. The Stocks above the 200 Day Moving Average is an extremely low 4.20% (BULLISH)
  4. The New High Low Index ($RHSPX) is a very low 0! (BULLISH)
  5. The Ratio of Stocks Above 200 day Moving Average to Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average spiked to a very high 3.5 (BULLISH)
  6. The S&P 500 is overextended from the 52 week high and is down around 38%. This is a rare occasion and one year forward returns at these levels have been market beating returns. We have not been at these levels since the great bottom of 1974. The over extension is even worse than the bottoms in 2001-2003, 1987, and 1970. (BULLISH)

Maybe it is time to trade or accumulate stocks or equities for the long term?

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