To evaluate these, we will compare the S&P 500 compared to Gold (GLD), Guns (RGR: Sturm Ruger, maker of firearms), and Spam (HRL, Hormel, maker of Spam).
(Dividends not taken into consideration):
- First Major Downturn: October 2007 to September 22, 2011:
- S&P 500: -27.83%
- GLD: +131.29%
- HRL: +57.62%
- RGR: +68.98%
During this time period, the "End of the World Portfolio" trounced the US Market S&P 500 index. - S&P 500: -27.83%
- Downturn Peak to Trough: October 29, 2007 to March 9, 2009:
- S&P 500: -51.83%
- GLD: +24.23%
- HRL: -14.97%
- RGR: -44.86%
From Peak to Trough, 2007 to 2009, the End of World Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. We do see that the more traditional defensive GLD and HRL did better in the downturn than RGR. - S&P 500: -51.83%
- Recent Peak to Now: July 7, 2011 to September 22, 2011:
- S&P 500: -16.63%
- GLD: +13.34%
- HRL: -10.01%
- RGR: +23.2%
- S&P 500: -16.63%
Hormel (HRL) has a forward PE 15.11, a Forward Yield of 1.80%, and a 5 year estimated growth rate of 9.50% for a PEG+Y ratio of: 1.3
Sturm Ruger (RGR) has a forward PE of 15, a Forward Yield of 1.90%, and an unknown 5 year estimated growth rate.
