End of World Portfolio: Gold, Guns, and Spam: Outperforming

Some people say that the End of the World Portfolio consists of "Gold, Guns, and Spam".

To evaluate these, we will compare the S&P 500 compared to Gold (GLD), Guns (RGR: Sturm Ruger, maker of firearms), and Spam (HRL, Hormel, maker of Spam).

(Dividends not taken into consideration):

1. First Major Downturn: October 2007 to September 22, 2011:
   
   
   
   • S&P 500: -27.83%
     
   • GLD: +131.29%
     
   • HRL: +57.62%
     
   • RGR: +68.98%
     
   
   
   During this time period, the "End of the World Portfolio" trounced the US Market S&P 500 index.
   
   
2. Downturn Peak to Trough: October 29, 2007 to March 9, 2009:
   
   
   
   • S&P 500: -51.83%
     
   • GLD: +24.23%
     
   • HRL: -14.97%
     
   • RGR: -44.86%
     
   
   
   From Peak to Trough, 2007 to 2009, the End of World Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. We do see that the more traditional defensive GLD and HRL did better in the downturn than RGR.
   
   
3. Recent Peak to Now: July 7, 2011 to September 22, 2011:
   
   
   
   • S&P 500: -16.63%
     
   • GLD: +13.34%
     
   • HRL: -10.01%
     
   • RGR: +23.2%
     
   
   
   

Hormel (HRL) has a forward PE 15.11, a Forward Yield of 1.80%, and a 5 year estimated growth rate of 9.50% for a PEG+Y ratio of: 1.3

Sturm Ruger (RGR) has a forward PE of 15, a Forward Yield of 1.90%, and an unknown 5 year estimated growth rate.