Long Term Trends: Part 5: Consumer Debt

Here are some current trends:

1. Gas and Energy Prices remain expensive and may remain expensive in the future.
2. Food Prices remain high and may remain high in the future.
   
3. Consumer Income may not keep up.
   
4. People can no longer use their houses as ATM machines.
   

With consumers being squeezed, what will the consumer (the U.S. Consumer) do? Will they start saving more or will they continue to spend?

This will depend on many factors, such as culture.

In Japan, there is a greater inclination to save compared to Americans.

However, in the United States, the Savings Rates over the last decade is below 4%, a very low personal savings rate. Even during the recession of 2001, the savings rate remains low.

So Americans (and other cultures) still want to spend despite being squeezed by higher gas, energy, and food prices. This means that in order to continue spending, consumers will need to incur more consumer debt.

Ways to play this

Two obvious plays on increasing consumer debt include:

1. Mastercard (MA)
   
2. Visa (V)

Other plays include:

1. American Express (AXP)
   
2. Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) - Engaged in purchase, collection, and management of portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables.
   

Credit Cards Used to Finance Healthcare Procedures

In the July 2008 edition of Consumer Reports, there is an article that details the increasing use of credit card to finance health care procedures. According to the article, $45 billion is spent today, and it could triple to $150 billion in 2015.

Beware of Rising Charge-Offs

Beware of Rising Charge-Offs. In the first quarter 2008, the Big Three all reported rising charge-offs. For example, the Bank of America charge-off rate increase from 4.73% to 5.19 percent.

Long term Trends: Part 4: Cleanup and Waste Management

We expect these trends to continue:

1. Global Industrialization produces more waste by-products.
   
2. High Energy Prices encourages use of Nuclear Energy. Nuclear Waste is a by-product.
   
3. Waste is an alternative energy resource. There is Waste to Energy conversion and even Methane Gas Capture
   
4. Recycling plays an important role as commodity prices (materials) continues to remain expensive.

There are additional current factors:

1. There are companies in this group near their current 52 week high.
   
2. This is a good area to be in at this part of the cycle and beyond.
   
3. There is recent merger and acquisition activity. Allied Waste (AW) and Republic Services (RSG) are in the process.

Some of the Industrial and Environmental Cleanup Companies and Waste Management Companies

1. American Ecology (ECOL)
   
2. Clean Harbors (CLHB)
   
3. Energy Solutions (ES)
   
4. Waste Management (WMI)
   
5. Allied Waste (AW)
   
6. Republic Services (RSG)
   

Don't Whine About Oil Prices, Profit from It (Or at least Hedge)

In today's CNBC Show "Mad Money", Jim Cramer tells viewers to try to profit from increasing oil prices rather than "freak" out over the price of gasoline.

Jim Cramer pointed out three reasons why oil prices are high:

1. Oil Fields are Drying Up
   
2. It is more difficult to find new oil and get it out of the ground.
   
3. Demand for oil is growing very fast especially in China, India and the rest of the Developing World.

Jim Cramer then used this introduction as a way to introduce some wildcat companies, those companies who are looking for oil.

Hedging For the ETF Investor

Some investors may be mainly ETF investors, and choose not to spend time picking individual stocks.

One way to hedge or profit against rising oil prices is to invest in the ETF with the symbol "USO". USO has a high correlation to the price of oil. USO mainly reflects "the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil."

For the Stock Picker

For the stock picker, there are many ways to profit from rising oil prices.

We highlighted the different ways and selected companies in Part 1 of the Long Term Trends: Energy, Oil, Coal, Nuclear, and Cleanup.

Long Term Trends: Part 3: Minerals, Metals, and Mining

With the Multi-Year Globalization Trend in place, minerals and metals are in high demand. Growing economies especially in the emerging markets need minerals and metals such as copper, driving up demand.

Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation.

Specialty metals are also in demand. For example, new generations of airplanes need lighter materials that specialty companies can provide.

Companies include:

1. Freeport McMoran (FCX), Gold and Copper Company
   
2. Rio Tinto (RTP), Copper, Aluminum, Gold and other materials and minerals.
   
3. US Steel Corp (X), Steel Company
   
4. Michel Steel (MTL), Russian Metal and Steel Company
   
5. Posco (PKX), Korean Steel Products
   
6. Norilsk (NILSY.PK), Russian Nickel Company
   
7. iShares Gold ETF (GLD)
   
8. iShares Silver ETF (SLV)
   
9. Precision Castparts (PCP), Specialty Metals
   
10. Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Specialty Metals
    
11. Peabody Energy (BTU), Coal Company
    
12. Joy Global (JOYG), Mining Equipment Company
    
13. Bucyrus (BUCY), Mining Equipment Company
    
14. Layne Christensen (LAYN), Mining Equipment Company
    

Long Term Trends: Part 2: Agriculture

In Part 1 of our Long Term Trends Series, we highlighted Energy, Oil, Oil services, Oil Sands, Natural Gas, Oil Pipelines, Refineries, Oil Shipping, Coal, Coal Services, Nuclear, Environment Cleanup and Alternative Energy.

In Part 2, we highlight Agriculture.

In a previous post, we highlighted reasons why there is a food crisis and food inflation, and why these are long term trends.

This is a long term trend that we can profit from.

Select companies include:

1. Monsanto (MON), the biotech of seeds. Do you want drought resistant seeds and higher yielding seeds?
   
2. Deere (DE), farm equipment company.
   
3. Potash (POT), the fertilizer company.
   
4. Archer Daniel Midland (ADM), handles Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing and Agricultural Services.
   
5. Bunge (BG), handles Agribusiness, Fertilizer and Food Products.
   

Growth of Agriculture in Brazil

Brazil has invested heavily in their sugar cane based ethanol infrastructure. Recently, CNBC had a segment on one of their documentary shows (Business Nation?) highlighting an Iowa farmer going to Brazil and doing well there. Land is cheaper, weather is great year round, and lots of opportunities abound.

This highlights the agriculture growth story, and also shows the potential for growth in areas all around the world such as Brazil.

Agriculture appears to be a good long term trend we profit from.

Long Term Trends: Part 1: Energy, Oil, Coal, Nuclear, Cleanup

Forever Portfolio Series

James Altucher, of TheStreet.com and Stockpickr.com, is writing a book: The Forever Portfolio: How to Pick Stocks That You Can Hold for the Long Run.

James Altucher hopes to show investors how to build a strong, consistent long-term portfolio, diversified enough to withstand the various cycles of the market.

Inspired by this, we will be starting a series over a period of time highlighting some long term trends. Some of the trends may be working right now, but some of them may start several years from now but last a long time.

Energy

Energy is a long term trend. Oil price is zooming. Demand will be increasing over the long term as countries all around the world, especially those countries in the emerging markets (such as China and India) demand more energy and oil.

Supply will remain limited, and rising energy prices (or consistently expensive energy prices) will remain a long term trend.

Integrated Oil Companies

Some integrated Oil Companies to look at:

1. Exxon Mobil (XOM)
   
2. Conoco Philips (COP)
   
3. CNOOC (CEO), Chinese Oil Company
   
4. Petro China (PTR), Chinese Oil Company
   
5. Petrobras Energia (PZE), South American Oil Company
   
6. Lukoil (LUKOY.PK), Russian Oil Company
   

Oil Services and Exploration

Oil companies need help searching for new oil, drilling, extracting oil from oil sands, and all other forms of help. Some of these oil services companies could benefit.

1. Schlumberger (SLB)
   
2. Halliburton (HAL)
   
3. Transocean (RIG)
   
4. National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
   
5. Nabors (NBR)
   
6. Ensco International (ESV)
   
7. Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)
   

Canadian Oil Sands and Other Energy

Canada has the Largest Crude Oil Reserve, but much of it is in Canadian Oil Sands, which can be difficult to extract, but becomes profitable as energy prices remain high.

1. Suncor (SU)
   
2. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
   

Natural Gas

As oil zooms higher, other forms of energy resources are needed and this incldues Natural Gas.

1. Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
   
2. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
3. Andarko Petroleum (APC)
   
4. Encana (ECA)
   
5. Devon (DVN)
   
6. Apache (APA)
   

Oil and Gas Pipelines

Gas and Oil needs to transported.

1. Williams Co (WMB)
   
2. Spectra Energy (SE)
   
3. Enbridge (ENB)
   
4. Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP)
   
5. El Paso Coroporation (EP)
   

Refinery

Oil needs to be refined.

1. Valero (VLO)
   
2. Marathon Oil (MRO)
   
3. Sunoco (SUN)
   

Oil Shipping

Oil needs to be shipped all around the world.

1. Frontline Ltd (FRO)
   
2. Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT)
   
3. Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG)
   
4. Teekay (TK)
   

Coal

Coal is one of the most inexpensive forms of fossil fuel. Some people complain about the environmental implications. There are new technologies out there.

1. Peabody Energy (BTU)

Coal Services

1. Bucyrus (BUCY)
   
2. Joy Global (JOYG)
   

Railroads for Coal

Railroads are needed to transport energy products such as coal:

1. Union Pacific Railroad (UP)
   
2. CSX Transportation (CSXT)
   
3. Norfolk Southern Railway (NS)
   

Nuclear

Nuclear can provide a lot of energy for very long time, but detractors do not like the environmental implications.

1. Cameco (CCJ)

Environmental Cleanup including Nuclear

With all these byproducts, the environment needs to be cleaned up.

1. American Ecology (ECOL)
   
2. Clean Harbors (CLHB)
   
3. Energy Solutions (ES)
   

Alternative Energy

Alternative Energy is still a very speculative area, but if you wish to research, you may. Alternative energy includes ethanol, bio-fuels, solar, wind, and even wave power. As of this moment, more funding will be put in alternative energies in a world where energy prices are zooming too high. Students and researchers will be researching new and more profitable ways to provide energy.

1. First Solar (FSLR), A Solar company
   
2. Any Agriculture Company
   
3. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)
   
4. Imperial Sugar (IPSU), another source of ethanol
   
5. Toyota Motors (TM), a leading hybrid engine car company