Thursday, September 22, 2011

End of World Portfolio: Gold, Guns, and Spam: Outperforming

Some people say that the End of the World Portfolio consists of "Gold, Guns, and Spam".

To evaluate these, we will compare the S&P 500 compared to Gold (GLD), Guns (RGR: Sturm Ruger, maker of firearms), and Spam (HRL, Hormel, maker of Spam).

(Dividends not taken into consideration):

  1. First Major Downturn: October 2007 to September 22, 2011:

    • S&P 500: -27.83%
    • GLD: +131.29%
    • HRL: +57.62%
    • RGR: +68.98%


    During this time period, the "End of the World Portfolio" trounced the US Market S&P 500 index.

  2. Downturn Peak to Trough: October 29, 2007 to March 9, 2009:

    • S&P 500: -51.83%
    • GLD: +24.23%
    • HRL: -14.97%
    • RGR: -44.86%


    From Peak to Trough, 2007 to 2009, the End of World Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. We do see that the more traditional defensive GLD and HRL did better in the downturn than RGR.

  3. Recent Peak to Now: July 7, 2011 to September 22, 2011:

    • S&P 500: -16.63%
    • GLD: +13.34%
    • HRL: -10.01%
    • RGR: +23.2%




Hormel (HRL) has a forward PE 15.11, a Forward Yield of 1.80%, and a 5 year estimated growth rate of 9.50% for a PEG+Y ratio of: 1.3

Sturm Ruger (RGR) has a forward PE of 15, a Forward Yield of 1.90%, and an unknown 5 year estimated growth rate.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Idea #6: AEA: Cash Advance Centers: Profit from Bad Times and Living Paycheck to Paycheck

Simple Idea #6: AEA: Advance America, Cash Advance Centers: Profit from Bad Times, Recession, Unemployment, and Living Paycheck to Paycheck


  • TICKER: AEA
  • SECTOR: Financial Services, Loans, Credit Services
  • GROWTH THEME: Bad times are with us with risks of recession, continued high unemployment and people continuing to live paycheck to paycheck. AEA, Advance America, Cash Advance America provides short term loans, cash advances, and credit improvement services.
  • MARKET CAP: $500 Million
  • FORWARD PE: 7.75
  • ESTIMATED 5 YEAR GROWTH: 15%
  • FORWARD YIELD: 3%
  • PEG+Y GROWTH: 0.43 (Very Good: < 1.0)
  • PERCENT ABOVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE: 3.8%
  • PERCENT ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE: 35%