Stock Market (S&P 500) Breakout Soon! We are near end of Symmetric Triangle

The Stock Market, as represented by the S&P 500 ($SPX), is very near the end of a symmetrical triangle (see chart above).

The Market has gone back and forth inside of this triangle, and the market is consolidating the move from the all time highs. The end of the triangle converges in March, and because there is often a breakout around 1/2 to 3/4s of the pattern, it is about time the market breaks out.

According to Stockcharts.com and Edwards and Magee, "roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals." Since the previous trend from the all time highs was down, the continuation means further downside.

Previously, this blog analyzed the potential depth of the decline, and we estimated that the downside target is 600 on the S&P 500, a drop of around 27% from here (S&P 500 value of 827). This matches another analysis by this blog which suggested that the long term S&P 500 bottom is from 450 to 600.


Today's S&P 500 Chart

HMSY 52 Week High; ATVI - DJ Hero Game; S&P 500 - Breakout Near

1. HMSY (HMS Holdings) hit 52 week high
   
   HMS Holdings (HMSY), a small cap company that takes advantage of waste in Government Health care Benefits, has just hit a 52 week high gaining 3.5% on Wednesday, February 4 to $33.13. This stock is technically strong and has good fundamentals as well.
   
   
2. ATVI (Activision-Blizzard) to release DJ Hero By End of Year
   
   Activision-Blizzard, Makers of the popular Guitar Hero, Call of Duty and World of Warcraft, announced that the game "DJ Hero" will be released before the end of the year, "and will include turntable-based controllers which gamers can use to spin and mix songs."
   
   
3. S&P 500 is still in converging triangle pattern; Breakout is near
   
   The S&P 500 is still in a converging triangle pattern. The end of the triangle appears to be before the end of March. Typically, breakouts (either up or down) will occur before the end of the triangle.
   
   Many speculate that these triangles are more likely downside patterns than upside patterns.
   
   This blog examined this triangle.
   
   The Daily Markets Blog agrees with The Tech Farm Blog's assessment.
   

NYX Stock in a Holding Pattern (June 6, 2007)

The New York Stock Exchange-Euronext Stock seems to be in a holding pattern. The multi year uptrend remains intact, but there has also been a 7 month downtrend, forming a symmetrical triangle. With this pattern, a stock normally trades within this triangle, and near the end, the stock may break out (up or down) on good volume. We can determine which way to trade/invest based on the direction of this breakout.

Currently, stock is stuck between support at around $79 and resistance at the 50 and 200 day moving average above. The stock is also being restrained by the symmetrical triangle described in the chart.

In the lower indicator window of the chart, there is a Bollinger Band Width indicator. Based on previous history, when the Bollinger Band Width is 5 or lower (on this stock), the stock normally has a large change in price (either up or down). Right now, Bollinger Band Width is around 6. So we are almost there.

Overall, NYX is in a holding pattern, but a big move to the upside or downside could be coming within the near to intermediate term future.