This hilarious internet video has been going around the internet lately. The singers, singing a song to the tune of Billy Joel's "We Didn't Start a Fire", sing a song asking if there is another Bubble.
Video Here
This video has been so popular, that even reputable Financial Services company Marketwatch.com has written about the video.
Marketwatch Article About the Bubble Internet Video
But are we really in a Bubble?
In 2000, Jeremy Siegel, in an article in the Wall Street Journal, wrote that of the 33 largest firms based on market capitalization, 18 of those were technology stocks, and their market weighted PE equaled 125.9. Mr. Siegel also mentions that half of the large cap technology stocks had PE ratios over 100.
Compare this with 2007, where even fast growth stock Google (GOOG), has a current forward PE of 32.74, a 5 year estimated growth rate of 34.41%, for a very low Price Earnings to Growth Rate (PEG) of 0.93, a very low ratio under 1.
So while some stocks now could be overvalued, this time it is different. This time there's real earnings, and prices, even for top growth stocks like Google (GOOG), seem fairly reasonable.
Showing posts with label internet video. Show all posts
Showing posts with label internet video. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Will AppleTV be a dud?
Will the greatly hyped AppleTV be a dud? According to Brent Schendler at Fortune, AppleTV is a dud. They even included alternative uses for AppleTV including a Sushi Platter: 
Some complaints he makes include the low quality of videos. "it requires an HDTV, but the video you download is so low-res that it looks as fuzzy as plain old broadcast TV" -- Brent Schendler.
Another is that there is no way to order a movie directly from the iTunes store via your TV. You have to manually download it to your computer first.
On the positive side, YouTube and Apple made an agreement to broadcast YouTube through the Apple TV interface. Together with Apple's iTune monopoly which can be broadcast to the living room TV, Apple may have a chance to succeed with the concept of AppleTV.
But at this time, I don't think the product and technology is fully mature and widespread adoption may take some time. There's a user who says that he's been watching YouTube Videos on his Nintendo Wii for some time. There's another user on a bulletin board echo the complaints of the bad quality of the videos. Another user wishes that Tivo functionality can be integrated with AppleTV.
Granted, we are still at the beginning of the Digital Living Room Revolution. While AppleTV's product may not be the "It" product, if I were to handicap all the players in the Digital Living Room, I'd give Apple a good chance of having a good market share in the Digital Living Room. But not with the current AppleTV product.
Apple (AAPL)
Google (GOOG, owner of YouTube)
Nintendo (NTDOY)
Some complaints he makes include the low quality of videos. "it requires an HDTV, but the video you download is so low-res that it looks as fuzzy as plain old broadcast TV" -- Brent Schendler.
Another is that there is no way to order a movie directly from the iTunes store via your TV. You have to manually download it to your computer first.
On the positive side, YouTube and Apple made an agreement to broadcast YouTube through the Apple TV interface. Together with Apple's iTune monopoly which can be broadcast to the living room TV, Apple may have a chance to succeed with the concept of AppleTV.
But at this time, I don't think the product and technology is fully mature and widespread adoption may take some time. There's a user who says that he's been watching YouTube Videos on his Nintendo Wii for some time. There's another user on a bulletin board echo the complaints of the bad quality of the videos. Another user wishes that Tivo functionality can be integrated with AppleTV.
Granted, we are still at the beginning of the Digital Living Room Revolution. While AppleTV's product may not be the "It" product, if I were to handicap all the players in the Digital Living Room, I'd give Apple a good chance of having a good market share in the Digital Living Room. But not with the current AppleTV product.
Apple (AAPL)
Google (GOOG, owner of YouTube)
Nintendo (NTDOY)
Monday, May 28, 2007
The Digital Living Room Revolution
In Cody Willard's Blog, he mentions that there is great "secular growth in the browser-based Internet-video cycle [as it] accelerates over the next few years. " While I agree with Cody Willard in this, I think this is only going to be part of a much larger scale Revolution: The Digital Living Room Revolution.
Viewing videos using traditional Internet Browsers (Internet Explorer, Firefox) is great. I can easily imagine a teenager sitting in front of their PC or workstation (or maybe in an Internet Cafe) going to YouTube and browsing videos and user generated content.
However, I think there are limits. I don't see grandparents regularly going to YouTube and browsing content. I don't see families sitting together enjoying YouTube. (Nielsen ratings says that there are more men than women who use YouTube, and those 12-17 years old are the key demographic.) Even if movies are streamed and viewed using an Internet Browser, I don't think many people would want to sit in front of their PC watching a 2 hour movie.
To reach a much wider audience, and to achieve a true widespread, paradigm shifting Revolution, the interface has to change. I believe the Revolution will be centered around the Digital Living Room.
I can imagine a future with the Digital Living Room (includes HDTV sets, a good sound system, and a very easy to use computer-like interface to the internet):
1. No longer will people be restricted to Cable Channels or Broadcast Television. Users or new companies can generate new content and videos and stream these directly to a family sitting on their couch watching their HDTV set. I can imagine a user using a simple remote interface (a modification of the Nintendo Wii's interface?) to change IP channels in the same way as a user today would change channels on a regular TV.
2. DVD players (even Blu-Ray or HD-DVD) becomes obsolete as video on demand gains wide acceptance. People can watch any program they want anytime they want without having to go to the video store.
3. Stores selling games for Game Consoles such as the Playstation PS3 becomes obsolete as gamers can download games directly to their system.
4. Instead of using the telephone, users can communicate with each other directly in high definition video calls.
5. Instead of having simple email, people can have video emails in High Definition.
6. The nature of retailing changes as people can evaluate and buy items with the aid of High Definition videos. Since the interface is easy to use and accessible to a wide audience, many more people would be able to buy items through the internet.
7. New developers could develop value added applications such as having a streaming ESPN sports ticker while watching their favorite sitcom on another channel.
These are just a few examples of the Digital Living Room. While there are some hints of this technology at this present time, there are many steps before this vision can take place.
In my next few posts, I intend to explore the current state of todays Digital Living Room and speculate what might happen in the future.
Viewing videos using traditional Internet Browsers (Internet Explorer, Firefox) is great. I can easily imagine a teenager sitting in front of their PC or workstation (or maybe in an Internet Cafe) going to YouTube and browsing videos and user generated content.
However, I think there are limits. I don't see grandparents regularly going to YouTube and browsing content. I don't see families sitting together enjoying YouTube. (Nielsen ratings says that there are more men than women who use YouTube, and those 12-17 years old are the key demographic.) Even if movies are streamed and viewed using an Internet Browser, I don't think many people would want to sit in front of their PC watching a 2 hour movie.
To reach a much wider audience, and to achieve a true widespread, paradigm shifting Revolution, the interface has to change. I believe the Revolution will be centered around the Digital Living Room.
I can imagine a future with the Digital Living Room (includes HDTV sets, a good sound system, and a very easy to use computer-like interface to the internet):
1. No longer will people be restricted to Cable Channels or Broadcast Television. Users or new companies can generate new content and videos and stream these directly to a family sitting on their couch watching their HDTV set. I can imagine a user using a simple remote interface (a modification of the Nintendo Wii's interface?) to change IP channels in the same way as a user today would change channels on a regular TV.
2. DVD players (even Blu-Ray or HD-DVD) becomes obsolete as video on demand gains wide acceptance. People can watch any program they want anytime they want without having to go to the video store.
3. Stores selling games for Game Consoles such as the Playstation PS3 becomes obsolete as gamers can download games directly to their system.
4. Instead of using the telephone, users can communicate with each other directly in high definition video calls.
5. Instead of having simple email, people can have video emails in High Definition.
6. The nature of retailing changes as people can evaluate and buy items with the aid of High Definition videos. Since the interface is easy to use and accessible to a wide audience, many more people would be able to buy items through the internet.
7. New developers could develop value added applications such as having a streaming ESPN sports ticker while watching their favorite sitcom on another channel.
These are just a few examples of the Digital Living Room. While there are some hints of this technology at this present time, there are many steps before this vision can take place.
In my next few posts, I intend to explore the current state of todays Digital Living Room and speculate what might happen in the future.
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