Undervalued Stocks with Respect to Growth and Yield (PEG+Y Ratio)

As the Stock Market including the U.S. S&P 500 Index goes down, experienced people say you should start creating a wish list of companies to buy at lower levels.

One measure of valuation is the PEG+Y Ratio which is the Forward Price Earnings Ratio divided by the Five Year Estimated Growth Rate Plus Yield:

PEG+Y = (Forward Price Earnings Ratio) / (5 Year Estimated Growth Rate + Yield)

PEGY (simpler form is the PEG Ratio) of less than 1 is a great value. A PEGY ratio of greater than 2 (or some other value like 1.5) can be considered overvalued.

Here are some PEG+Y Ratios of some popular companies:

#	Symbol	Company	PEG+Y	Current Price	Forward P/E	5 Year Growth Rate	Forward Yield
1	CEDC	Central European Distribution	0.15	6.08	7.07	46.62	0.00
2	BTU	Peabody Energy	0.16	31.61	5.56	33.05	1.00
3	SI	Siemens	0.22	86.96	8.37	35.50	3.00
4	FCX	Freeport-McMoran	0.27	29.87	4.99	15.06	3.30
5	AEA	Advance America	0.37	7.12	6.72	15.00	3.40
6	BAC	Bank of America	0.38	5.53	4.61	11.48	0.70
7	LVS	Las Vegas Sands	0.38	36.71	14.86	30.08	0.00
8	VE	Veolia	0.41	13.78	9.44	13.15	10.10
9	NXG	Northgate Minerals	0.42	3.26	15.52	36.80	0.00
10	JPM	JP Morgan	0.44	28.65	5.4	8.96	3.30
11	SHFL	Shuffle Master	0.45	7.74	11.22	25.00	0.00
12	GLW	Corning Glassware	0.46	11.88	6	11.50	1.60
13	HRS	Harris Corp	0.47	33.23	6.09	9.63	3.30
14	CNQ	Canadian Natural Resources	0.49	27.59	7.79	14.70	1.20
15	WFC	Wells Fargo	0.50	23.18	6.94	12.00	2.00
16	ABB	ABB Ltd	0.50	16.42	8.6	13.40	3.90
17	GE	General Electric	0.50	14.69	9.3	14.74	3.90
18	BIDU	Baidu	0.50	105.16	23.9	47.65	0.00
19	AAPL	Apple	0.51	374.6	11.47	22.69	0.00
20	NIHD	NII Holdings Inc.	0.51	25.06	9.49	18.66	0.00
21	NTES	NetEase	0.52	36.35	8.95	17.30	0.00
22	CAT	Caterpillar	0.53	70.55	7.94	12.44	2.50
23	PCLN	Priceline	0.54	445.75	15.23	28.31	0.00
24	GILD	Gilead	0.54	37.81	8.4	15.43	0.00
25	RTN	Raytheon	0.55	39.5	7.22	9.00	4.20
26	INTC	Intel	0.56	20.62	8.35	11.03	3.90
27	SLB	Schlumberger	0.56	57.72	10.67	17.32	1.70
28	GS	Goldman Sachs	0.57	90.08	5.97	9.04	1.50
29	TDG	Transdigm Group	0.57	77.38	14.2	24.97	0.00
30	NFLX	Netflix	0.59	113.25	17.37	29.32	0.00
31	CELG	Celgene	0.59	60.7	14.35	24.16	0.00
32	GEOY	Geo Eye	0.61	27.1	2 10.72	17.50	0.00
33	GOOG	Google	0.61	495.52	11.8	19.21	0.00
34	HCBK	Hudson City Bancorp	0.64	5.31	6.9	5.00	5.70
35	PM	Philip Morris	0.65	61.76	11.88	13.26	4.90
36	SWY	Safeway	0.66	16.32	8.77	9.78	3.50
37	DECK	Deckers	0.67	88.11	15.09	22.50	0.00
38	LOW	Lowe's	0.68	18.98	10.66	12.73	2.90
39	MDRX	AllScripts	0.69	16.99	15.88	23.11	0.00
40	HD	Home Depot	0.71	31.59	11.79	13.51	3.00
41	TRMB	Trimble Navigation	0.73	32.4	2 13.4	18.25	0.00
42	MA	Mastercard	0.74	310.88	14.92	19.84	0.20
43	CSCO	Cisco	0.76	15.19	8.08	9.20	1.50
44	RIG	Transocean	0.76	45.91	7.77	3.65	6.60
45	DEO	Diageo	0.79	75.15	11.82	10.70	4.30
46	TGT	Target	0.82	47.8	11.01	10.96	2.40
47	WMT	Walmart	0.83	51.96	10.63	10.00	2.80
48	AMX	America Movil	0.84	21.5	9.51	9.95	1.40
49	ATVI	Activision	0.85	11.95	12.85	13.68	1.40
50	MO	Altria Group	0.86	26.56	12.13	8.0	0 6.10
51	INFY	Infosys	0.87	50.04	15.44	16.14	1.70
52	CME	Chicago Mercantile Exchange	0.87	248.5	12.76	12.44	2.30
53	IBM	IBM	0.87	173.29	11.74	11.83	1.70
54	CVS	CVS Caremark	0.87	32.97	10.34	10.35	1.50
55	GME	Gamestop	0.88	22.97	7.32	8.34	0.00
56	IGT	International Game Technology	0.89	13.73	12.15	11.99	1.70
57	ECOL	US Ecology	0.90	15.05	14.07	11.00	4.70
58	XOM	Exxon Mobil	0.90	71.15	8.14	6.47	2.60
59	WM	Waste Management	0.90	31.36	12.85	10.00	4.20
60	JACK	Jack in the Box	0.92	19.26	10.82	11.80	0.00
61	WEN	Wendy's	0.92	4.46	19.3	9 19.28	1.70
62	YUM	YUM Brands	1.02	48.45	15.0	9 12.56	2.30
63	PEP	Pepsi	1.06	60.29	12.51	8.55	3.30
64	ERTS	Electronic Arts	1.06	19.76	16.61	15.73	0.00
65	MON	Monsanto	1.08	60.11	17.58	14.30	2.00
66	VCLK	Value Click	1.08	14.92	13.44	12.43	0.00
67	UL	Unilever	1.10	30.56	12.18	7.00	4.10
68	PG	Procter and Gamble	1.12	62.84	13.63	8.90	3.30
69	T	AT&T	1.14	28.16	11.09	3.77	6.00
70	MCD	McDonalds	1.14	86.02	15.06	10.01	3.20
71	QSII	Quality Systems	1.15	92.11	26.85	21.95	1.40
72	SNDA	Shanda Interactive	1.17	28.86	15.86	13.53	0.00
73	K	Kellogg	1.18	52.88	13.95	8.65	3.20
74	GIS	General Mills	1.24	37.96	13.41	7.60	3.20
75	SWK	Stanley Black and Decker	1.26	48.25	7.91	3.00	3.30
76	YHOO	Yahoo	1.27	13.53	16.3	12.84	0.00
77	HMSY	HMS Holdings	1.27	22.95	31.01	24.33	0.00
78	JNJ	Johnson and Johnson	1.28	62.08	11.74	5.58	3.60
79	HAIN	Hain Celestial	1.28	28.31	16.27	12.70	0.00
80	PCP	Precision Castparts	1.28	148.33	14.29	11.05	0.10
81	HRL	Hormel Foods	1.31	26.53	14.99	9.50	1.90
82	ISRG	Intuitive Surgical	1.39	348.76	25.81	18.62	0.00
83	KO	Coca Cola	1.42	65.42	15.29	8.00	2.80
84	HANS	Hansen Natural	1.43	79.76	22.4	15.70	0.00
85	WFM	Whole Foods	1.44	62.44	27.75	18.70	0.60
86	CERN	Cerner	1.48	65.56	29.53	19.89	0.00
87	SGMS	Scientific Games	1.50	6.63	14.41	9.63	0.00
88	COST	Costco	1.52	81.63	21.26	12.77	1.20
89	GRMN	Garmin	1.56	30.6	14.17	4.10	5.00
90	COP	Conoco Philips	1.61	60.99	7.07	0.20	4.20
91	CMG	Chipotle Mexican Grill	1.65	292.7	33.88	20.50	0.00
92	CLH	Clean Harbors	1.69	47.83	20.18	11.93	0.00
93	AMT	American Towers	1.98	52.86	38.58	19.46	0.00
94	AMZN	Amazon	2.39	211.98	66.24	27.67	0.00
95	RGR	Sturm Ruger	5.80	24.63	12.76	0.00	2.20

Home Entertainment Content Overload Will Keep You at Home

How can we leave the living room?

We can see that the Analog to Digital Living Room Long Term Trend is in place as people are upgrading to High Definition Digital Television, [Corning Glassware (GLW) is a play on this.] and installing Home Theater Systems [Dolby (DLB) is a play on this]. Content providers such as Comcast (CMCSA), DirectTV (DTV), and the Dish Network (DISH), also help keep people in their seats.

Now there are even more ways to keep people in their living rooms.

DVRs, or Digital Video Recorders, allow users to record and watch their favorite shows, even in high definition. These devices are very user friendly, and users of products such as Tivo (TIVO) have a cult following. The NDS Group (NNDS) is also another play on this.

Tivo has recently teamed up with Amazon.com (AMZN) to provide a service called Amazon Unbox, that allows movies and shows to be directly downloaded from Amazon to the Tivo DVR.

Netflix (NFLX) and BlockBuster (BBI) offer another alternative to home entertainment. These companies ship DVDs by postal mail and provide another source of home entertainment.

Netflix (NFLX) recently teamed up with Roku. Roku provides a special set-top box that allows subscribers of Netflix to stream a selection of movies directly to their television (which could be a widescreen High Definition Television). [I recently tried out the Roku system, and it is easy to setup and convenient and there are no extra service fees from Netflix. Quality at this time is close to the VHS level, but streaming is very good using broadband.]

Apple (AAPL) has attempted a similar type of Set Top Box with AppleTV but that product has not taken off.

Gaming consoles, from makers such as Nintendo (NTDOY.pk), Microsoft (MSFT), and Sony (SNE) also provide even more reasons for people to stay in their living room.

With all these forms of entertainment in the living room, how will people leave their living room?

Netflix (NFLX) Wants to Dominate the Digital Living Room with Roku Partnership

We all know Netflix (NFLX) as the company that provides DVDs by postal mail. Some time ago, they added a feature where you can logon to their Netflix.com site, and watch selected movies through the internet browser without affecting the normal DVD by mail schedule.

However, watching a full two hour movie in front of one's Computer will not be a good experience. People have invested much money in their couches, high definition TVs and home entertainment sound systems. The next step is delivering content, such as DVD content from the home computer and internet to the comfort of the Digital Living room.

Apple (AAPL) attempted to market a similar solution using AppleTV but this product has not taken off.

Tivo (TIVO) is offering another option. Aside from providing Digital Video Recorder Functionality (DVR), Tivo is also working together with Amazon Unbox program where users of Tivo can download movies purchased or rented from Amazon.com (AMZN).

Netflix's Solution to the Digital Living Room

Now, Netflix is part of the competition for the Digital Living Room, Netflix is also now taking this route with its partnership with Roku. For $99, Roku is providing a special set top box where special on-demand movies from Netflix can be streamed directly to your living room television.

This service will not affect the normal DVD by postal mail service of Netflix.

Will this product work? I have recently ordered a Roku box and will try it out.

More details on the Roku Netflix Player here.

The battle for the Digital Living Room continues, and let us keep track of the trends in this area.

Build Your Own High Gain Stock Portfolio, One Sector At a Time

There are many ways to construct your own stock portfolio.

One way to create a diversified portfolio is to choose stocks from different sectors that follow these criteria:

1. The stock is in a good sector.
   
2. The stock is a good stock in a good sector.
   
3. The stock has Reasonable Valuation:
   a. PEG < 2.0 (Price-Earnings to Growth Ratio).
   b. Forward PE < 40
   
4. The stock shows Strength:
   a. Stock is within reach of a 52 week high.
   b. Stock is above the moving averages (200 day, and even 50 day moving average).
   

Here are a few suggestions that mostly fit the criteria above. One could create a portfolio by choosing a stock or a few stocks from each sector below.

A. Tech: Internet and Information

We are in the middle of a society changing Information Revolution, and the Internet plays a central role.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
GOOG	Google	0.91	31	33.88%

B. Tech: Mobile Convergence and Mobile Devices

One of the major trends is the trend towards Mobile Convergence. Rather than have separate devices, such as a cell phone, a camera, and a music player, all these features are being integrated into a single mobile device. The Apple Iphone is a web browser, a music player, and a cell phone. Cell phones now come with cameras and music playing capabilities.

In addition, globalization is helping this sector out as international and emerging markets are adopting these mobile technologies in great numbers. One Indian person has even said that in India, even beggars have cell phones.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
AAPL	Apple	1.66	37.52	22.63%
RIMM	Research In Motion	1.04	35.06	33.61%
NOK	Nokia	1.40	17.06	12.22%

Aside from the Apple iphone, Apple (AAPL) has many other products as well such as the Apple iPod music player, and the Apple iMac computer.

Nokia (NOK), is also a play on Global Positioning as it is acquiring Digital Map Maker Navteq (NVT).

C. Tech: Networking/Digital TV/Telecom Equipment

Another trend is in the Network.

1. There is a trend having greater Bandwidth for advanced services (for example, High Definition Video on Demand).
   
2. There's the conversion of analog TV to digital TV. On February 2009, companies are supposed to stop broadcasting analog television, and are supposed to broadcast digitally.
   
3. There is the Battle for the Digital Living Room. From IP Television (IPTV), to Digital TV, to High Definition TV sets, to Digital Video Recorder Technology (DVRs), to digital set-top boxes, to streaming content from computers to the big screen, the battle for the Digital Living Room is just beginning.
   
4. The trend also includes wireless telecommunication systems that help bring advanced services (video on a cell phone) to mobile devices.
   

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
CSCO	Cisco	1.25	17.64	14.10%
GLW	Corning	0.95	15.80	16.57%
NNDS	NDS Group	0.69	16.39	23.75%
HRS	Harris	0.58	15.68	27.00%

Cisco (CSCO) is the big company in Networking. They also have Set-Top Box exposure (access to the Digital Living Room) with their acquisition of Set Top Box maker Scientific Atlanta.

Corning (GLW) makes glass and equipment for higher bandwidth optical networking. They are also a play on the Digital Living Room as their products are needed by those who make flat panel displays and High Definition TVs.

NDS Group (NNDS) is the United Kingdom's version of the overhyped Chinese company China Digital TV (STV). The company engages in the supply of open end-to-end digital technology and services to digital pay-television platform operators and content providers worldwide. They even supply middleware and Digital Video Recorder Technologies, and Set-Top Boxes, and they support high definition TV.

Harris (HRS) is a company which operates in four main segments from Government Communication Systems, RF Communications, Broadcast Communications and wireless networking through Harris Stratex (HPTX). Their Broadcast Communications Group is involved Digital TV. They also benefit from a good win rate on government contracts.

D. Tech: GPS and Global Positioning

A major growth area in tech is in Global Positioning Technlogies. This technology is more than just turn by turn directions on a navigation device. In the future, as part of Mobile Convergence, GPS will be integrated into almost any device which can move, such as a cell phone.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
GRMN	Garmin	1.44	28.06	19.53%
TRMB	Trimble	1.86	28.94	15.60%
SIRF	Sirf Technologies	0.77	20.44	26.62%

Garmin (GRMN) mainly makes Global Positioning Devices. They are big in the car navigation and aeroplane navigation market. Recent concerns include the intended acquisition of their Digital Map Supplier Navteq (NVT) by Nokia (NOK).

Trimble Navigation (TRMB) makes GPS products. They are also a unique play on the good Agriculture market, as they even have GPS equipment for farm equipment and tractors.

Sirf Technologies (SIRF) makes GPS semiconductors. Their chips are finding their way into devices such as cell phones.

E. Tech/Consumer Discretionary: Computer, Video and Online Gaming

The strong Gaming cycle is continuing as three major console makers (Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony) have released major consoles.

There are also up and coming new trends such as online gaming, especially in East Asia (China).

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
GME	Gamestop	1.36	28.92	21.22%
SNDA	Shanda Interactive	0.64	21.26	33.26%

Gamestop (GME) is the premiere gaming retailer. Why choose the winner of the console or software maker war when you can buy the retailer who sells all these products.

Shanda Interactive (SNDA) together with The9 Limited (NCTY) are dominant Chinese Online Gaming companies poised for great growth.


F. Energy: Oil and Oil Services.

Energy and Oil remain strong sectors. There's great demand as countries all over the world, especially the emerging market countries, need oil. Supply is limited as well, and harder to come by.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
COP	Conoco Philips	0.93	9.19	9.92%
NOV	National Oilwell Varco	0.60	17.89	29.67%

Conoco Philips (COP) is an integrated oil company, while National Oilwell Varco (NOV) is an Oil Services and Equipment Company, and operates three segments: Rig Technology, Petroleum Services and Distribution Services.

G. Energy: Coal

Energy sources such as oil are in great demand. Coal, a very inexpensive fossil fuel, benefits from the great demand in energy.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
BTU	Peabody Energy	0.93	9.19	9.92%

H. Materials

Freeport McMoran (FCX) is a gold and copper company, and both are needed by rapidly growing emerging market countries such as China.

Precision Castparts (PCP) manufactures metal components used in the aerospace, power generation, general industrial, and automotive markets. There's a bull market in aerospace and infrastructure, and Precision Castparts benefits.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
FCX	Freeport McMoran	0.98	10.82	11.00%
PCP	Precision Castparts	0.85	18.13	21.23%

I. Agriculture

There's a Bull market in agriculture, thanks to an influential US Farm Bill in 2002.

Monsanto (MON) makes seeds, including very specialized and drought resistant seeds. Deere (DE) makes agricultural equipment. Trimble Navigation (TRMB) is also an unusual play on agriculture as they provide GPS products to many places, including tractors and the agriculture industry.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
MON	Monsanto	0.95	29.53	30.93%
DE	Deere	1.75	16.21	9.25%

J. Aerospace and Defense

There's a Bull market in Aerospace and Defense thanks to the aeroplane replacement cycle. Many of the older planes have to be replaced.

Boeing (BA) makes airplanes and is a better play than competitor Airbus. Transdigm Group (TDG) is a $2B company that supplies parts to the Aerospace industry. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a defense contractor that makes many defense products, including military aircraft.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
BA	Boeing	1.08	15.86	14.70%
TDG	Transdigm Group	0.64	18.24	28.50%
LMT	Lockheed Martin	1.33	15.31	11.52%

K. Infrastructure

With great global growth comes a great need for Infrastructure.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
ABB	ABB Limited	0.83	20.63	25.00%
MDR	McDermott	1.38	22.01	16.00%

L. Telecom: Emerging Market Wireless Telecom

Emerging Markets are using wireless products in large numbers. Many emerging countries have low wireless penetration so there is even more room to grow.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
AMX	America Movil	0.49	15.89	32.65%
VIP	Vimpel Communications	0.75	17.49	23.37%
CHL	China Mobile	0.98	24.66	25.14%

M. Financials

Goldman Sachs (GS) is the premier brokerage company, the gold standard.

Hudson City Bank (HCBK) is a fast growing regional bank that has very little exposure to the subprime problems, and some have speculated that along with other Northeastern banks, could be taken over by Canadian banks and other companies.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
GS	Goldman Sachs	0.76	9.91	13.12%
HCBK	Hudson City Bank	1.09	18.73	17.15%

N. Asset Management Companies

Everyone is looking for the next Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Warren Buffett's company.

One very good company in the mold of Berkshire Hathaway is the cash rich Leucadia (LUK), run for many years by super investors Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg.

Carl Icahn, another superinvestor, gives us Carl Icahn Enterprises (IEP), (Formerly American Real Estate partners (ACP)) and offers investors a way to invest with this great activist investor. Watch out for guru investors with a lot of cash to use.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
LUK	Leucadia	N/A	N/A	N/A
IEP	Carl Icahn Enterprise	N/A	N/A	N/A

O. Consumer Staples

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
PG	Procter and Gamble	1.60	18.07	11.31%
UL	Unilever	0.96	15.34	16.00%

P. Consumer Staples: Drinks and Beverages

Hansen (HANS) is a fast growing beverage company specializing in Energy Drinks.

Central European Distribution (CEDC) is a Polish drink and Vodka producer.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
PEP	Pepsi	1.74	19.22	11.03%
HANS	Hansen Natural	0.76	30.06	39.63%
CEDC	Central European Distribution	1.29	22.52	17.50%

Q. Consumer Discretionary: Gambling Equipment

Scientific Games (SGMS) makes equipment for Lotteries, Printed Products, and Diversified Gaming. Some say this is a recession proof stock.

International Game Technology (IGT) makes Gaming Equipment for Casinos.

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
SGMS	Scientific Games	1.06	23.94	22.66%
IGT	International Game Technology	1.69	25.36	17.20%

R. Industrials

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
GE	General Electric	1.47	16.31	11.09%
UTX	United Technologies	1.40	16.39	11.72%

S. Healthcare

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
GILD	Gilead	1.35	23.30	17.20%

Growth Stock Valuation (September 25, 2007)

Growth Stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been doing well and have recently reached their 52 week or all time highs. But when are these growth stocks overvalued?

One rule of thumb that is very useful with stocks (especially growth stocks) is to use the PEG ratio, or the Forward Price Earnings ratio divided by the 5 year estimated growth. A PEG ratio over 2 is considered overvalued, and a PEG ratio under 1 is considered very cheap.

Table of Selected Growth Stocks

Here are a few growth stocks with different PEG ratios. Data from Yahoo Finance, Tuesday, September 25, 2007:

Symbol	Stock Name	PEG	Forward PE	5 yr growth
AMX	America Movil	0.46	15.12	32.65%
HRS	Harris	0.56	15.17	27%
TDG	Transdigm Group	0.65	18.58	28.50%
HANS	Hansen	0.66	25.74	39.09%
WBD	Wimm Bill Dann	0.67	23.53	35.00%
SNDA	Shanda Interactive	0.71	20.73	29.39%
ABB	ABB	0.78	19.43	25.00%
GOOG	Google	0.87	29.13	33.65%
CROX	Crox	0.96	25.55	26.57%
RIMM	Research in Motion	1.12	34.46	30.82%
CSCO	Cisco	1.15	17.73	15.43%
JSDA	Jones Soda	1.15	42.77	37.07%
ISRG	Intuitive Surgical	1.35	54.20	40.05%
GME	Gamestop	1.40	29.10	20.75%
AAPL	Apple	1.46	34.66	23.67%
BIDU	Baidu	1.48	81.06	54.60%
GRMN	Garmin	1.56	30.15	19.38%
NVT	Navteq	1.69	39.81	23.49%
YHOO	Yahoo	1.99	48.20	24.19%
AMZN	Amazon.com	2.59	60.70	23.42%

Chart of Growth Stocks

Here's a Chart of the different growth stocks sorted by PEG. In the graph, PEG is multiplied by 20. So an adjusted PEG of 15 means PEG is 15/20 or 0.75:

52 Week High Stock Scan (Sept 24, 2007)

Today, Monday, September 24, 2007, there are 98 Nasdaq stocks and 107 NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) Stocks hitting New 52 Week Highs at one point during the day.

Some selected stocks and sectors:

1. Technology

Technology is a very strong sector:

1. AAPL (Apple): Forward PE: 33.55
   
2. AMZN (Amazon): Forward PE: 60.12
   
3. GOOG (Google): Forward PE: 29.08
   
4. GRMN (Garmin): Global Positioning Product Company. Forward PE: 29.12
   
5. BIDU (Bidu): The Google of China. Forward PE: 82.67
   
6. EMC (EMC): Storage Company and Information Infrastructure. Forward PE: 25.01
   
7. ARBA (Ariba): Software and Services: Forward PE: 24.11
   
8. BCSI (Blue Coat Systems): Smallcap Security Software Company. Forward PE: 32.52
   
9. GIGM (Giga Media): Taiwan Internet and Gaming Company. Forward PE: 18.93
   
10. OIIM (O2Micro International): Fabless Semiconductor Company involved in power management, and security applications in many different markets. Forward PE: 18.10
    
11. OVTI (OmniVision): Produces semiconductor image sensor devices such as CameraChip image sensors. Forward PE: 14.53
    
12. SPIL (Siliconware Precision Industries): Taiwanese Semiconductor Company. Forward PE: 12.67
    
13. ALVR (Alvarion): Israel based company produces wireless broadband acecss systems.
    

2. Telecom Providers and Wireless Providers

Telecom Providers especially Wireless Providers are also in Bull Market Mode.

1. ROS (Rostelcom): Russian telecom company.
   
2. CHL (China Mobile): Chinese Telecom Company.
   
3. T (AT&T): US Based Telecom Provider. Forward PE 13.50, Yield: 3.40%
   
4. VOD (Vodaphone): European Based Telecom Company. Forward PE 13.47, Yield: 5.00%
   

3. Aerospace

Aerospace is also another current bull market.

1. TDG (Transdigm Group): $2B company supplies equipment for the aerospace industry. Forward PE: 17.69. 5 year estimate: 28.5%. PEG is a very good 0.62 (less than 1 is very cheap)
   

4. Biotech

1. BIIB (Biogen Idec): Forward PE: 21.00
   
2. CELG (Celgene): Forward PE: 42.98
   

5. Retail, Consumer Discretionary

1. CROX (Crocs): Specialty footwear maker: Forward PE: 24.60
   
2. FLWS (1-800 Flowers): Flower Retail Company. Forward PE: 25.80
   
3. HLF (Herbalife): Nutritional Supplements, weight management, personal care products. Forward PE: 14.85
   

6. Computer and Video Gaming

1. GME (Gamestop): Computer and Video Gaming Retailer. Forward PE: 28.66
   
2. SNDA (Shanda Interactive): Chinese Online Gaming company. Forward PE: 19.89
   

7. Oil, Oil Services, Energy

Oil continues to be strong, including Chinese and emerging market oil.

1. CEO (Cnooc): Chinese Oil Company
   
2. CVX (Chevron): US Oil Company
   
3. HAL (Halliburton): Oil Services Company
   
4. NOV (National Oilwell Varco): Heavily involved in constructing and selling products for the oil and gas industry.
   
5. PBR (Petrobras): Oil Company in Brazil
   
6. PTR (PetroChina): Chinese Oil and Natural Gas Company
   
7. SHI (Shanghai Petrochem): Process crude oil into synthetic fibers, resins, plastics, intermediate petrochemical products and petroleum products in China.
   

8. Beverages and Consumer Staples

1. HANS (Hansen): Hansen, specialty energy drink maker. Forward PE: 25.35
   
2. KO (Coca Cola): Drink company. Forward PE: 19.42. Yield: 2.40%
   
3. PG (Procter & Gamble): Premiere Consumer Staple Company. Forward PE: 17.85
   

9. Industrial and Shipping

1. DRYS (Dry Ships): Operates drybulk carriers including drybulk commodoties such as coal, iron ore, and grains. Forward PE: 8.15
   
2. MMM (3M): Forward PE: 16.72
   

10. Healthcare

1. SUNH (Sun Healthcare): Specialty healthcare for Seniors (Baby Boomers are aging!) Forward PE: 20.62.
   

11. Macau Gaming

There's a bull market in the up and coming Macau (China) market, to rival Las Vegas.

1. WYNN (Wynn): Forward PE: 53.61
   
2. LVS (Las Vegas Sands): Forward PE: 51.99
   

12. Infrastructure

The Global Growth Story needs Infrastructure.

1. ABB (ABB): Switzerland infrastructure company. Forward PE: 19.43
   
2. MDR (McDermott): Forward PE: 20.64
   

13. Minerals and Materials

The Global Growth story needs minerals and materials.

1. BHP (BHP Billiton)
   
2. FCX (Freeport McMoran): Gold and Copper
   
3. RTP (Rio Tinto)
   
4. NEM (Newmont Mining)
   
5. PKX (Posco): Korean Steel Company
   

14. Casual Dining

1. CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill): Forward PE: 45.98
   
2. THI (Tim Hortons): Restaurants and Donus. Forward PE: 21.65
   

15. Defense
Defense is another strong area.

1. RTN (Raytheon): Forward PE: 16.81
   

16. Agriculture

1. POT (Potash): Fertilizers and other products. Forward PE: 25.36
   

Strategic Portfolio Re-Allocation as Fed Cuts Rates (Aug. 21, 2007)

Fed expected to Cut

We've been experiencing a painful market correction centered around subprime problems, mortgages, and a US liquidity crunch. Because of all this, the Fed is now expected to cut the Fed's Funds Rate from 0.50% to 0.75% by First Quarter of 2008 from various sources.

Sector Rotation Model based on Fed Cutting Rates

When the Fed acts to raise or cut rates, we should act accordingly. These are important turning points. According to Standard and Poor's Sam Stovall's Sector Rotation Model, and Jim Cramer's Sector Rotation Model (Page 115 of his Jim Cramer's book: "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World") as the Fed tightens or cuts rates, it is profitable to get out of certain sectors and into others.

In Jim Cramer's Sector Rotation Chart, we should be doing the following (Interpretation of the chart can differ depending on whether you look at GDP growth or look at the actions of the Fed):
1. Sell "smokestack" stocks such as Caterpillar (CAT), or 3M (MMM).
2. Sell metals and mineral stocks such as Alcoa (AA) or Newmont Mining (NEM)
3. Buy high multiple tech stocks such as Google (GOOG)
4. Buy Banks and Financials such as JP Morgan (JPM) or Wells Fargo (WFC)
5. Eventually, as the economy slows, buy Retailers.

However, there is another story that may conflict with the advice above: The Global Growth Story.

The Global Growth Story

Because emerging markets like China are growing fast, they need materials such as Copper, and industrial equipment like those made by Caterpillar (CAT). This goes against some of the advice based on the Sector Rotation model above.

I do believe the Global Growth Story is a multi-year/multi-decade long cycle.

Portfolio Strategic Repositioning

So what can we do to strategically position ourselves for the intermediate future?

I have several different portfolios with different styles (most are well diversified portfolios). However, in one of the portfolios, I apply a more concentrated method, and this is what I've been doing during the last month with this portfolio:

1. Sell Oil and Oil Services

Oil and Oil Services have not been doing well recently as crude prices have been going down and may settle in the $60 to $65 per barrel range. If we are to see an economic slowdown in the US, demand could weaken. Yes, over the long term, the global growth story needs oil. So while my concentrated portfolio has no oil, my long term diversified portfolios have sufficient exposure to this sector.

2. Sell Coal

Coal, as embodied by the stock Peabody Energy (BTU) has been going down. Peabody Energy reported reduced guidance because of delays in ramping production at recently acquired mines.

3. Sell Minerals

I took profits in Freeport McMoran (FCX) whose stock price had been dropping like a rock. Also, the Sector Rotation model above suggests that we do sell mineral stocks. However, I still believe in the Global Growth Story. I am looking for ways to get back into Freeport McMoran (FCX), a Gold and Copper company.

4. Sell Selected Financial Companies

Goldman Sachs (GS) is a quality company, but it had been dropping hard, and during the time when it was uncertain that the Fed was going to do anything, I had to sell Goldman Sachs in order to stop the freefall and to raise cash to purchase other securities. Some of Goldman Sach's Hedge Funds suffered big losses.

5. Reduce Emerging Market Wireless Telecom (Overweight to Neutral)

I still believe in the strength of Emerging Market Wireless Telecom especially companies such as Mexico's America Movil (AMX). I had overweighted America Movil, but I reduced it to a neutral position so I can invest in other names.

6. Hold Computer and Video Gaming Company

I am continuing to hold Gamestop (GME), a retailer of computer and video game consoles, equipment and software. Gamestop has been doing well, and is part of the great Computer and Video Game Cycle. This cycle will remain strong, and Jim Cramer even mentions this very positively in a discussion with TheStreet.com's Michael Comeau.

7. Hold Infrastructure Company

Countries around the world needs infrastructure as they grow, and I continue to hold ABB Limited (ABB), a Swiss Infrastructure company providing power and automation technologies to utility and industry customers worldwide. Infrastructure is still needed around the world.

8. Overweight High Growth Tech:

Currently continuing to hold Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), and added Garmin (GRMN) and all have been doing well recently. These are the key high tech growth stories that can be owned for many years. They are the leaders, and innovators, and their forward PE ratio are all under 30 for their great growth. The sector rotation model also suggests this, and these stocks have held up well during the downturn and will do very well in the future.

9. Add Selected Financials with No Subprime Risk

After discovering that a financial company, Hudson City Bank (HCBK) had been holding up well during the most recent market correction where financial companies stock prices were being punished, I decided to look deeper. James Altucher, of TheStreet.com pointed out a link to the Bergen Reporter. The article, written by Dunstan Prial, says that "Officials at Hudson City Savings Bank, Columbia Bank and Valley National Bank said fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis that has roiled markets in recent weeks has so far been minimal. The primary reason, said Hudson City Chief Executive Officer Ron Hermance, is smaller regional banks tend to hold on to the mortgages they generate instead of reselling them into so-called secondary markets, where they are resold as investment products." CNN even reports that Hudson City Bancorp is the Anti-Countrywide. Jim Cramer also is bullish on regional banks in this part of the cycle.

Hudson City Bank is also a fast growing bank with conservative lending practices. In a falling rate environment with many financials suffering from a liquidity crunch and subprime problems, Hudson City Bank (HCBK) stands to benefit.

10. Hold and Add to Cash Rich Companies with Great Investors

Leucadia (LUK) is a cash rich company run by two Guru investors, Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg. American Real Estate Partners (ACP) is a very cash rich Real Estate company that recently includes veteran activist investor Carl Icahn. In a cash strapped environment, whoever has cash holds a very valuable commodity. And if the allocator of Capital is a talented investor such as Ian Cumming, Joseph Steinberg, and Carl Icahn, who like to buy undervalued and distressed securities, then the return on investment is even better.

I continue to accumulate Leucadia (LUK) and have added a position in ACP (American Real Estate Partners). Both have held up very well during the market downturn and both will do well in this environment.

11. Hold Aerospace Company

The Aerospace Cycle is still strong. Boeing (BA) would be an obvious play, but I continue to hold Transdigm Group (TDG). Transdigm Group is a $1.8 Billion company, with a forward PE of 15.55, a five year estimated growth rate of 28.5% for a very low Price Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55, very cheap! (less than 1 is very cheap).

12. Hold Defense Play

The defense bull market is still there, and is levered more to government spending than consumer spending. Obvious names include Raytheon (RTN) or Lockheed Martin (LMT), but I prefer investing in Harris (HRS).

Harris (HRS) is a $7.7 Billion company that provides special equipment to the government and the military. They operate four segments, Government Communications Systems, RF Communications, Microwave Communications and Broadcast Communications. It has a forward PE of 15.11 and a five year estimated growth rate of 27% for a very low PEG of 0.56.

13. Hold Emerging Market Beverage Play

I continue to hold Wimm Bill Dann (WBD), a high growth diary and juice producer in Russia. This play should not have a large correlation with the US Financial situation and is more levered to the local Russian economy. TheStreet.com Ratings often lists Wimm Bill Dann as one of its five top growing stocks.

The Sectors in Bull Market Mode

We are in a bull market right now, with the S&P at all time highs, and the Dow near all time highs. So what sectors are working now? What are the long term trends worth investing in? (In this article, trends mean 3 years or longer.)

1. Agriculture:

In 2002, there was an influential US Farm Bill, "The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002." Prior to this, according to a Forbes Article, " few stocks had big moves prior to the enactment of the 2002 farm bill. Consider AGCO (AG), which sells combines and other farm equipment. Over the course of the year prior to the May 2002 signing of the farm bill, AGCO's shares climbed 150%, vs. a 14% decline for the S&P 500. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Deere & Co. (DE), though not as frothy, also rose nicely in that time period." The push towards Ethanol is also another reason for the bull market in agriculture.

Jim Cramer prefers Deere (DE), who makes the agriculture farm equipment, Monsanto (MON), a biotech company that makes the seeds, and Chemical and Mining Co. of Chile (SQM), a fertilizer play in the agricultural sector.

Forbes likes companies such as Archer Daniels Midlands (ADM), AGCO (AG), and CNH Global (CNH), among many companies in the list they provide as beneficiaries of the farm bill.

2. Machinery

Similar to the farm bill, the $287 Billion US Transportation-spending law in 2005 has been good to machinery stocks. Beneficiaries include companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), and Terex (TEX). As a bonus, companies like Caterpillar (makes of construction equipment), have international exposure as well.

3. Infrastructure

In this area, Jim Cramer likes Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and McDermott (MDR). Foster Wheeler, "provides engineering and construction services to the oil and gas, oil refining, chemical/petrochemical, pharmaceutical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance sectors worldwide. It operates through two groups, Global Engineering and Construction Group (Global E&C Group), and Global Power Group." McDermott (MDR) "operates in three segments: Offshore Oil and Gas Construction, Government Operations, and Power Generation Systems."

Fluor (FLR), is another company in this area. Again, this sector also benefits from global growth.

4. Aerospace and Defense

All those old civilian and military planes need to be replaced. We are in the middle of long aerospace cycle. The main play is Boeing (BA), who benefits from the cycle and also from Airbus' troubles. Other companies in this area include BE Aerospace (BEAV), which manufactures and markets cabin interior products for commercial aircraft and business jets, Northrop Grumman (NOC), an aerospace and defense company, Embraer (ERJ), maker of jet and turboprop aircrafts for civil and defense aviation markets, and Transdigm Group (TDG), a 2 Billion Market Capitalized Company that "engages in the design, production, and supply of engineered aircraft components for use in commercial and military aircraft worldwide." Indirectly, companies such as Allegheny Technology (ATI), creator of specialty metals, benefits from this cycle, as newer planes need lighter materials to save fuel.


5. Oil, Gas, and Energy

Oil, Gas and Energy are in bull market mode because demand is high, and supply is low. The US and Emerging Markets need these to continue their fast growth. And supply is limited, so aside from oil, oil services company which do offshore drilling, supply services to oil companies, companies which search for oil, companies that make and manage offshore rigs are benefitting greatly.

Companies include integrated oil companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Conoco Philips (COP), oil services companies such as Halliburton (HAL), and Schlumberger (SLB), refiners such as Valero (VLO), offshore drillers such as Global Santa Fe (GSF) and Ensco (ESV), transport vessels for offshore oil services such as Tidewater (TDW), and oil services and rig companies such as National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Transocean (RIG).

6. Minerals

Gold, Copper, Silver, and other materials are in bull market mode. Once again, this is low supply, high demand. The US, as well as emerging and other international markets are growing! They have an insatiable appetite for these materials. Companies include Freeport-McMoran (FCX), a gold and copper company, and Jim Cramer suggests Lundin Mining (LMC) as well, as the runner up.

7. Telecom especially Emerging Market (Wireless) Telecom

Wireless use, and advanced telecom services such as mobile internet, are growing around the world. Products such as the Apple (AAPL) Iphone, and Research in Motion's (RIMM) Blackberry help drive demand, and countries around the world are increasingly using these services. In the US and in Europe and in Japan, wireless penetration is reaching levels from 70-100%. However in Emerging Markets such as Mexico, and Latin America, wireless penetration is at much lower levels, and is expected to hit 60% penetration in the region only in 2010. That means that there is great opportunity and growth in this area. As an example, Mexican (and South American) telecom play, America Movil (AMX), still has a forward PE of only 15.51, and a 5 yr estimated growth rate of 31.6%, for a PE to Growth ratio of around 0.5, very cheap!

While AT&T (T) is a play on North America Telecom, the greater growth (at a reasonable price) is in emerging markets. Companies include America Movil (AMX), for Mexico and South America, NII Holdings (NIHD) for Latin America, Vimpel Communications (VIP) for Russia, China Mobile (CHL) for China, and Vodaphone (VOD) for Europe, Middle East, Asia and Africa.

8. Mobile Convergence/Wireless Integrated Devices/Handsets

Mobile convergence, where different technologies such as voice, data, and video come together in a single handset, is continuing to grow at a rapid pace. Leaders include Apple (AAPL) with their new handset, Research in Motion's (RIMM) popular Blackberry product, and other companies like Nokia (NOK). As new services emerge, the infrastructure to provide fast, high quality video on these mobile devices will play an important role.

9. Location Based Services

Location based services currently depend on GPS, the Global Positioning System. The companies which use these technlogies are doing well in the market, and will continue to do well, as anything that moves, from cars, with automatic navigation devices, to military weapons, to people holding mobile converged devices such as advanced cellphones will have GPS. Garmin (GRMN) is a company which provides Location Based Product devices. Navteq (NVT) is a company which provides the digital maps, and its competitor is a private company called Tele-Atlas. Sirf Technlogies (SIRF) makes GPS chips. Though it has struggled in the recent past, there are signs that the stock is stabilizing. Competitor includes Broadcom, who bought out their competitor Global Locate. Trimble Navigation (TRMB) is another company providing GPS systems. They even bought the company AtRoad, which tracks fleets of vehicles. Software maker MapInfo (formerly MAPS), was recently bought out by Pitney Bowes (PBI). Indirectly, telecoms will benefit, advanced handset makers will benefit, and companies such as Google (GOOG), may be prime candidates in creating location based service applications such as local GPS search supported by location based advertising. There is great growth in this industry!

10. Computer and Video gaming

Computer and Video gaming are in the middle of a strong cycle, as three major gaming consoles are out from Sony (SNE), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nintendo (NTDOY.pk). Sony also has the portable gaming device Sony PSP, and Nintendo has the portable gaming device Nintendo DS. Demographics also support growth as Generation Y is the 2nd largest group (after the Baby Boomers), and many people in Generation Y like to play games. There are many plays in this sector from Retailers (Gamestop (GME)), console makers (Nintendo (NTDOY.pk)), game makers (Electronic Arts (ERTS), Activision (ATVI)), graphic chip makers (NVidia (NVDA)), and gaming accessories (Logitech (LOGI)). More on this sector and analysis by the numbers here.

11. Online Gaming in Emerging Markets such as China

There is great growth in online gaming, especially in China. There is a growing middle class, and increasing broadband penetration (internet cafes included). In China and Korea, online gaming has become a very popular pasttime. Two good online gaming plays in China include Shanda Interactive (SNDA), and The9 Limited (NCTY) who has the right to bring World of Warcraft to China. Shanda Interactive has a free model where people can play the games for free, but pay real money for items in the game. Article on the Growing Online Gaming Market in Emerging Markets here.

12. Internet, Search, and Internet Video

The internet, the backbone of the major Information Revolution, remains strong. People need to find relevant information from all the data, and companies like Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) help do this. Google (GOOG), the groups bellwether company, even purchased YouTube, a popular internet video company. Baidu (BIDU) and Rediff (REDF) service both the Chinese and India markets. Brick and Mortar Retailing continues to be challenged by internet retailing spearheaded by Amazon.com (AMZN) and EBay (EBAY). Infrastructure companies, such as Akamai (AKAM), help make delivery of information better and faster.

13. International Emerging Markets

Emerging markets such as Taiwan, Korea, South Africa, China, Mexico, Brazil, India and China are in bull market mode. This trend will last more than a few years, and this would appear to be part of a much longer trend. Since many companies benefit, an investor could invest in a broad based Emerging Market Exchange Traded Fund such as ishares EEM, and Vanguard's VWO.

---

Other Sectors to Watch

Besides the sectors which are working well right now, there are other sectors worth watching. Some may start their run right now, while others may take more time to make their gains.

1. Optical Networking and Networking

More data is being placed on the internet, especially internet video. High Definition (which requires more bandwidth) will become more of a standard. Advanced services such as Internet TV (IPTV), and video demand will require much greater bandwidth. Eventually, the system will not be able to handle the demand for greater bandwidth. Next generation applications will require much greater bandwidth. Right now, even AT&T's top DSL Broadband package supports 6 Megabits per second (mbps). In Korea, broadband penetration is around 70%, and their internet speeds go up to 50 mbps, over 8 times faster than AT&T's top speed. The US is behind some countries such as Korea!

Optical Networking is a way to get much better download speeds. The best way to play this is througn Corning Glassware (GLW), who have the added benefit of servicing LCD and flat panel displays (another growth area). Ciena (CIEN) is an optical networking play. Speculative plays include $6 stock Level 3 Communications (LVLT) and $4 stock Finisar (FNSR).

I believe we are the verge of a breakout in the Optical area.

2. Obesity

Obesity is a long term problem. Two possible ways to play this trend are through Weight Watchers (WTW) and NutriSystem (NTRI). NutriSystem looks like the good growth play right now.

3. Specialty clothing

Certain companies just have a special story and product. A good example is Crocs (CROX), maker of a very popular type of footwear. Other companies include UnderArmour (UA) and Gildan Activewear (GIL).

4. Long-Term Care Facilities

Parents of Baby Boomers and eventually the Baby Boomers may need to use Long Term Care Facilities such as Manor Care (HCR), Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), and Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ). We need to watch this group for better action.

5. Healthcare Information System

Eventually, healthcare needs to have integrated software systems. The companies which provide these solutions include Cerner (CERN), Allscripts (MDRX), and Quality Systems (QSII). While this is a growth area, we may have to study the companies carefully to determine the better play.

6. Specialty and Niche Product Companies

Companies which provide a specialty or niche product have a competitive advantage. Examples might be #2 Energy Drink Maker Hansen Natural (HANS), and robotic surgery company Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).

7. Gambling Companies

There is great growth in the gambling and gambling equipment industry. Macau, in Asia, is being transformed into the Las Vegas of the East, and many companies can benefit. If internet gambling (which has taken a hit based on some laws restricting them in the US) comes back, this group will grow even more. Some companies in the gambling and gaming area include Las Vegas Sands (LVS), and MGM Mirage (MGM). Gaming equipment companies include International Gaming Technlogy (IGT), Scientific Games (SGMS), and ShuffleMaster (SHFL).

8. Leisure and Entertainment

Baby Boomers are in their peak spending years which may finally peak in 2010, until Generation Y comes of age. Also, Generation Y, as represented by Generation Y reporter of TheStreet.com Cliff Mason, appears to be more willing to spend money on leisure and entertainment. During these periods, leisure and entertainment companies should benefit.

Companies in this sector include gambling companies and gambling equipment companies (as mentioned above), hotels and resorts such as Starwood Hotels and resorts (HOT), Cruise Ship Companies such as Carnival Corp (CCL), and companies such as Vail Resorts (VAIL) and food and restaurant companies such as Darden (DRI). Powershares ETF "PEJ" covers this area, and the companies in the ETF are listed here.

9. Water

Some people say that water, and clean water, may be the next oil. An ETF which covers this area is powershares PHO, which holds companies such as Mueller Water Products (MWA) and Tetra Tech (TTEK).

10. Environmental Cleanup and Waste Management

Some companies have to cleanup our mess and all or waste including industrial waste, and radioactive waste. According to a Motley Fool article, the trends driving growth in this sector include growth in consumer spending on disposable items in growing populations. Also, there is a rise in industrial waste services as more companies utilize hazardous products in production facilities. There is a greater concern for the environment, so these companies will benefit. Companies in this area include Waste Management (WMI), Clean Harbor (CLHB), and American Ecology (ECOL).

11. Stock Exchanges

Stock Exchanges are in bull market mode. There is great consolidation in this area, and people speculate there may be only a few worldwide stock exchanges. Companies include the InterContinental Exchange (ICE), Nasdaq (NDAQ), New York Stock Exchange-Euronext (NYX), CME Group (CME), and Nymex (NMX).

12. Future Gen Y Plays: Housing, Automobiles, Weddings, Babies

Yes, housing is down right now, but we have to look many years into the future. Generation Y is a very large group, second only to the Baby Boomers. They will eventually (many years from now) be buying their first homes. They will also make other large purchases such as automobiles, and many will be getting married, and having babies. This sector trend will be good for companies in these areas, but we may have to wait many years to play these trends.


Credits

Through my research and experience, I found these bull markets. Jim Cramer mentions six wild bull markets, and those six are incorporated above (with my comments), and a long time ago, Jim Cramer also suggested looking into areas such as HealthCare Information Systems.

How to Play: Am I Diversified (Diversifying your Stock Portfolio)

In Jim Cramer's CNBC TV show, "Mad Money", Jim Cramer has a segment where callers call in and mention their top five holdings. Jim Cramer then analyzes the stocks, and determines whether or not the caller's portfolio is diversified. Many other people on the social networking site Stockpickr.com ask the same question. But is there a way to determine on your own whether your portfolio is diversified or not? Definitely!

Sector Diversification

The main focus of "Am I diversified?" focuses on sector diversification. Many companies and analysts may have some variations, but there are around ten major sectors:

1. Basic Materials: These include gold, copper, composite material, chemicals, industrial metals, mining, forestry and paper companies such as FCX (Freeport McMoran), and ATI (Allegheny Technology).
   
2. Consumer Discretionary: Consists of General Retailers, Media, Travel and Leisure, Food and Drug Retailer companies such as TGT (Target), DIS (Disney), BBY (Best Buy), and SBUX (Starbucks).
   
3. Consumer Staples: Consists of Household Goods, Beverages, Food Producers, and Tobacco. Some others (such as those at ishares.com ) would include Automobile Parts, and Leisure Goods. Examples include PEP (Pepsi), MO (Altria), PG (Procter and Gamble), and SLE (Sara-Lee)
   
4. Energy: Consists of Oil & Gas Producers, Oil Equipment and Services, Coal, and Alternative Energies (such as Solar). Stocks include XOM (Exxon-Mobil), SLB (Schlumberger), and BTU (Peabody Energy).
   
5. Financial Services: Consists of National and Regional Banks, General Financial companies, Brokerages, Exchanges, Nonlife Insurance, Real Estate, and Life Insurance Companies. Examples include WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), NYX (New York Stock Exchange-Euronext), AMTD (Ameritrade), PGR (Progressive Corp).
   
6. Healthcare: Consists of Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment and Services, Healthcare Insurers. Examples include PFE (Pfizer), JNJ (Johnson and Johnson), MDT (Medtronic), GILD (Gilead Biotech), UNH (United Health Group), ISRG (Intuitive Surgical)
   
7. Industrials: Consists of General Industrials, Aerospace and Defense, Support Services, Industrial Engineering, Industrial Transportation, Electronic and Electrical Equipment, Railroads, and Construction and Materials. Examples include GE (General Electric), BA (Boeing), CAT (Caterpillar), UPS (United Parcel Service), UNP (Union Pacific Corp), DE (Deere), WMI (Waste Management), FLR (Fluor Corp), MDR (McDermott), and TEX (Terex).
   
8. Technology: Consists of Hardware, Software, Semiconductor, Internet, Networking, and General Technology Companies. Examples include MSFT (Microsoft), CSCO (Cisco), GOOG (Google), AAPL (Apple), IBM (IBM), INTC (Intel), NOK (Nokia), and RIMM (Research in Motion).
   
9. Telecom: Consists of Fixed Line and Mobile Telecommunication Companies. Examples include T (AT&T) and VZ (Verizon Communications)
   
10. Utilities: Consists of Electricity, and Gas, Water and MultiUtilities. Examples include EXC (Exelon Corp), TXU (TXU Corp) and DUK (Duke Energy).
    

How to Sector Diversify

So what you can do is look at each stock in your portfolio, and categorize them into one of the sectors above. After you go through your entire portfolio, you may find that some stocks may be grouped into a single area. For example, you may hold NYX (New York Stock Exchange-Euronext) and GS (Goldman Sachs). While one is a Stock Exchange, and the other is a Broker, both are grouped in the Financial Services Sector.

There are some companies that may be difficult to pin down to any one sector. For example, AMZN (Amazon). Is it Consumer Discretionary or is it Technlogy? Use your best judgement. If you want, during your analysis, you can put 50% of Amazon under Consumer Discretionary, and 50% of Amazon under Technology.

Sector Diversification is the main form of diversification preached by Jim Cramer.

Other forms of Diversification

Sector Diversification is not the only form of diversification. There are many other forms of diversification.

Market Capitalization Diversification

Companies have different market capitalizations. Some are very large companies (large market capitalization) like GE (General Electric), while some others, are small or mid capitalization companies such as NTRI (NutriSystem). Stocks of different market capitalizations behave differently from each other.

Growth and Value Diversification

Some stocks are considered Growth Stocks. Investopedia defines a Growth Stock as one whose "Shares in a company whose earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate relative to the market."

Some other stocks are considered Value Stocks. According to Investopedia, a Value stock is "A stock that tends to trade at a lower price relative to it's fundamentals (i.e. dividends, earnings, sales, etc.) and thus considered undervalued by a value investor. Common characteristics of such stocks include a high dividend yield, low price-to-book ratio and/or low price-to-earnings ratio."

So within a portfolio, you can further diversify by holding different styles of stocks from growth to value.

Peter Lynch, in his Book, One Up On Wall Street, further groups stocks into six categories:

1. Slow Growers
   
2. Stalwarts
   
3. Fast Growers
   
4. Cyclicals
   
5. Turnarounds
   
6. Asset Plays
   

International and US Diversification

Another way to diversify your portfolio is to hold stocks that are based in the United States, or based internationally. With international stocks, you can further group them into Developed International Markets such as Europe, Japan, and Australia, or into the Emerging International Markets such as Taiwan, Korea, China, Brazil, India, Eastern Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Russia.

Speculative and Non-Speculative

In his books (such as "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World") and his shows, Jim Cramer preaches that up to 20% of a (discretionary, not retirement) portfolio could be allocated to more speculative stocks. This is yet another form of diversification.

Conclusion

So in order to have a diverisfied portfolio, be sure to diversify across several industry sectors as mentioned above. You can also choose to diversify in other ways as well such as market capitalization, growth vs. value, speculative vs. non-speculative, US vs International Diversification.