Showing posts with label Cheap Growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cheap Growth. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Idea #5: HANS: Hansen, Leading Energy Drink Maker, Monster brand

Simple Investment Idea #5: HANS (Hansen): Leading Energy Drink Maker ('Monster' brand)


  • TICKER: HANS
  • SECTOR: Consumer Staples, Beverage, Energy Drink, Specialty Drinks
  • GROWTH THEME: Hansen (HANS) is a specialty drink maker, and their Monster Brand Energy Drink is a leader. Generation Y (a large group) and the Youth, and global growth will help propel stock and industry forward.
  • DEMOGRAPHICS: Wiley has a study of Energy Drink Demographics.
  • MARKET CAP: $7.1B
  • FORWARD PE: 22.73
  • ESTIMATED 5 YEAR GROWTH: 14.5%
  • FORWARD YIELD: 0%
  • PEG+Y GROWTH: 1.56
  • PERCENT ABOVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE: 4.7%
  • PERCENT ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE: 29%
  • RELATED COMPANIES: Pepsi (PEP), Coca Cola (KO), Diageo (DEO)
  • RELATED BRANDS: Red Bull (Austrian Red Bull GmbH), Rockstar

Monday, May 5, 2008

PE to Growth Ratio for International ETFs

Vlada, from the Czech Republic (stockweb.blogspot.com), posted a great link.

Vlada looked at several international ETFs and calculated the PEG ratio (Price Earnings Ratio to Growth Ratio) based on a countries 2008 GDP growth and a countries P/E Ratio (the Economic PEG).

The countries with the highest 2008 GDP growth include China (9.3%), India (7.9%) and Russia (6.8%).

The countries with the lowest 2008 GDP growth include Italy (0.3%), the US (0.5%) and Canada (1.3%).

The countries with the lowest PE ratio are France and the U.K. (11) and Italy (11.1).

The countries with the lowest PEG ratios are China (1.6) and India (2.3).

The countries with the highest PEG ratios are Italy (37) and US (26.8)

While one could look at the Economic PEG on its own, I think one additional thing we can look into is the rate of GDP growth, or the direction of P/E ratios. At some point, will China and India growth slow? And will Italy and US Growth start to increase?

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Current (April 17, 2008) Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Stocks. Hanes Brands (HBI) is on the List.

Recently, we revisited the Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen. We've looked at the results of several portfolios:
  1. September 12, 2007 to April 11, 2008
  2. Results of Three Portfolios Checked on April 15, 2008.


So what are the current stocks in the Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen?
Stocks are sorted from Highest to Lowest Market Capitalization:

The Current Stocks in Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen

TickerCompany5 yr. GrowthFwd PE
RTPRio Tinto3514.58
AMXAmerica Movil29.6714.53
RIGTransocean36.679.17
WFTWeatherford Intl2114.44
FMXFomento Economico2017.05
NENoble Corp25.887.91
LLLL-3 Comm21.2415.26
ESVEnsco Intl20.537.89
FTIFMC Technologies2319.76
AKSAK Steel2016.27
CLRContinental Resources41.416.55
BUCYBucyrus3118.53
MEEMassey Energy29.8816.48
SPNSuperior Energy26.759.06
ATWAtwood Oceanics33.510.37
HBIHanes Brands22.512.01
EGOEldorado Gold10018.26
WHQW-H Energy2013.63
CRKComstock Resources31.6515.39
SFYSwift Energy30.337.34
PETDPetroleum Dev2017.62
TTEST-3 Energy Services81.2515.36
MEAMetalico Inc4313.04
NCITNCI Inc2115.59


All these stocks have a growth rate greater than their forward PE, and their forward PE is less than 20.

What sectors are the stocks in?

Many of the stocks in the list above are in the commodity sector including oil, energy, steel, and gold. Commodities continue to appear strong.

AMX, an emerging market wireless telecom company, appears to remain a good growth play.

International Markets remain strong. AMX, the Mexican and South America play is on the list, as well as the beer and beverage maker FMX, Fomento Economico.

Hanes Brands??

A surprising entry in this list is Hanes Brands (HBI), a retail play.

As of April 17, 2008, the stock looks like it is breaking out.

Hanes earnings call is scheduled for Monday April 21, 2008.

According to a Barrons Blog:"HANESBRANDS CLEANS UP
The affirmative news in the Hanesbrands (HBI) (besides the fact that macro economic conditions don’t really determine the need for undergarments) story: cotton prices have traded in patterns distinct from other agricultural commodities. In fact, after cotton, which for much of this year was keeping pace with the bulge in farm products, reached its high last month, the commodity has sold off to the tune of about 16%. In addition, the company’s largest customer is Wal-Mart (WMT), as Credit Suisse noted in a research report Tuesday, and Wal-Mart has proved to be one of the more resilient names in the retailing sector, which limits the risk Hanesbrands has to slower retailing traffic. The firm also said the company’s efforts to restructure its costs hasn’t been reflected in the balance sheet. All that suggested there could be some upside in shares, despite the 40% improvement off the January lows, which have carried the stock to within pennies of its highs for the last year."

Hanes Brands (HBI) might be worth looking into.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Results of 3 Portfolios: Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout (April 15, 2008)

In a previous article, we described the Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen.

In this post, we will continue to track the performance of three portfolios. We are taking the snapshot as of Tuesday, April 15, 2008. We previously had a snapshot on July 17, 2007.



==============================
Portfolio 1: February 23, 2007
==============================



# Symbol Start End Return
1 AMX 46.89 64.06 36.62%
2 TSM 10.91 10.36 -5.04%
3 VIP 17.04 31.34 83.92%
4 IPR 73.35 83.65 14.04%
5 AYE 47.64 52.40 9.99%
6 WCRX 15.15 17.48 15.38%
7 BRP 41.40 76.50 84.78%
8 SCS 17.24 10.80 -37.35%
9 MLHR 39.16 22.47 -42.62%
10 AIR 30.61 20.80 -32.05%
11 GRT 25.53 11.94 -53.23%
12 DVR 12.49 11.95 -4.32%
13 TGI 54.92 55.15 0.42%
14 CRAI 53.88 32.36 -39.94%
15 TLF 7.99 2.75 -65.58%
16 APH 33.85 41.08 21.36%
17 GIL 26.80 33.63 25.49%
18 MIDD 58.88 61.90 5.13%



Total 0.94%

SPY 141.96 133.24 -6.14%
IWM 81.44 69.01 -15.26%
EFA 74.77 73.31 -1.95%





===========================
Portfolio 2: March 14, 2007
===========================



# Symbol Start End Return
1 TSM 10.60 10.36 -2.26%
2 DISH 38.26 30.49 -20.31%
3 WFR 55.05 72.28 31.30%
4 ASX 4.98 5.03 1.00%
5 SPIL 8.73 8.73 0.00%
6 BRP 41.75 76.50 83.23%
7 LAUR 59.28 61.95 4.50%
8 KSU 33.65 40.54 20.48%
9 BEAV 30.73 34.01 10.67%
10 CVO 24.50 9.94 -59.43%
11 IART 43.45 41.65 -4.14%
12 KNL 22.39 10.94 -51.14%
13 AIR 30.25 20.80 -31.24%
14 MYE 17.63 12.08 -31.48%


Total -3.49%

SPY 136.08 133.24 -2.09%
IWM 76.72 69.01 -10.05%
EFA 71.02 73.31 3.22%



=========================
Portfolio 3: May 16, 2007
=========================


# Symbol Start End Return
1ESV 58.35 65.00 11.40%
2RIG 90.43 149.30 65.10%
3TDW 64.24 57.44 -10.59%
4KB 93.35 66.57 -28.69%
5FCX 70.25 105.50 50.18%
6VLO 71.62 48.56 -32.20%
7NBG 11.33 10.14 -10.50%
8ACGY 21.16 25.50 20.51%
9AYR 33.27 12.85 -61.38%
10FTI 36.84 66.17 79.61%
11HXM 62.29 61.50 -1.27%
12SZE 57.58 68.75 19.40%
13SLB 75.86 91.13 20.13%
14CLB 92.77 137.91 48.66%
15CKR 20.08 11.04 -45.02%
16CEPH 80.14 62.67 -21.80%
17TDK 86.09 62.72 -27.15%
18SNDA 26.65 26.44 -0.79%
19LKQX 12.15 20.11 65.51%


Total 7.43%

SPY 148.71 133.24 -10.40%
IWM 81.06 69.01 -14.87%
EFA 78.14 73.31 -6.18%




The Results

SPY represents the S&P 500 ETF, IWM represents the small cap Russell 2000 ETF, and EFA represents the Developed International ETF.

Looking at all three portfolios, the Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen outperformed:
  1. Outperformed the S&P 500 in 2/3 portfolios with an average outperformance of 7.84%
  2. Outperformed the Russell 2000 in 3/3 portfolios with an average outperformance of 15.02%
  3. Outperformed the EFA in 2/3 portfolios with an average outperformance of 3.26%


Notes

  1. Prices used are the adjusted prices based on Yahoo Finance. Price is adjusted based on splits and dividends.
  2. LAUR (Laureate Education) no longer trades as LAUR. The last known price is used.
  3. GSF (Global Santa Fe) merged with Transocean (RIG). The RIG stock price is used here.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Outperforming Portfolio Since September 2007 Using Cheap Growth to Breakout Screen

Sometime back, we created a (buy and hold) portfolio on an online site using our Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen.

Many months later, after the S&P 500 declined 9.42% from September 12, 2007 to April 11, 2008, we checked the portfolio and discovered that the portfolio even during the market decline increased by 2.21% outperforming the S&P 500 and even posting a gain!

The Portfolio

Here is the Portfolio. We tried evenly weighting each position, but weighting could vary.



StockCurrentBoughtReturn
ACGY $24.20 $27.77 -13.18%
AMX $62.65 $64.100.39%
ATW $99.61 $78.5926.49%
BEAV $35.80 $44.45-20.82%
CAM $45.71 $43.40 5.07%
CEO $158.77 $130.71 21.21%
CHK $47.60 $37.6026.35%
CHL $81.40 $65.9923.1%
CLB $131.40 $110.01 19.18%
DWSN $72.16 $76.39-5.79%
ESL $55.30 $50.988.22%
FTI $61.81 $51.5319.7%
GIGM $15.30 $15.74-3.05%
HLX $32.53 $45.65-29.58%
HRS $48.69 $59.90-18.71%
KNDL $43.68 $39.0211.69%
NNDS $46.51 $56.50 -18.02%
NOV $67.48 $67.99-1%
NTG $42.85 $50.78 -15.87%
NWK $5.77 $12.55-54.28%
OIIM $8.03 $14.49-44.83%
OTEX $33.50 $26.0428.39%
SGP $17.21 $32.48-47.23%
SII $67.77 $69.33-2.35%
SXE $24.54 $22.0111.24%
VIP $31.15 $25.5921.48%
WHQ $72.54 $69.593.99%


Overall Results

Period: September 12, 2007 to April 11, 2008:
  1. S&P 500 Return: -9.42%
  2. This Portfolio: 2.21%


Cash Percentage (Portfolio): 5.7%

The Stocks and Sectors

Stock Name Sector
ACGY Acergy Oil and Gas
AMX America Movil Central and South American Telecom
ATW Atwood Oceanics Oil and Gas
BEAV B.E. Aerospace Aerospace and Defense
CAM Cameron International Oil and Gas
CEO CNOOC Chinese Oil and Gas
CHK Chesapeake Energy Oil and Gas
CHL China Mobile Ltd Chinese Telecom
DWSNDawson GeophysicalOil and Gas
ESLEsterline Technology Aerospace and Defense
FTIFMC Technologies Chemicals: Agriculture, Industrial, Specialty
GIGMGigaMedia Ltd Chinese Online Game and Internet Services
HLXHelix Energy Oil and Gas
HRS Harris Group Industrial Communication Systems
KNDL Kendle International Clinical Research
NNDS NDS Group Broadcast and Digital TV Equipment
NOV National Oilwell Varco Oil and Gas
NTG Natco Group Oil and Gas
NWK Network Equipment Telecom Equipment and Networking
OIIM O2Micro Int'l Semiconductors
OTEXOpen Text Enterprise Content Manager Systems: Tech
SGP Schering-Plough Pharma
SII Smith International Oil and Gas
SXE Stanley Information Equipment for Defense and Gov't
VIP Vimpel Communcations Russian (Wireless) Telecom
WHQ W-H Energy Services Oil and Gas


Comments on Sector

A large part of the outperformance is due to overweighting the Oil and Gas sector, which continues to be a hot sector.

Other popular sectors on the portfolio are the Emerging Market Telecom plays, Aerospace and Defense, and select Tech and Pharma companies.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Market Returns in 2007, Changing Growth/Value, US/Int'l, SmallCap/LargeCap

2007 Stock Market Returns
Returns from December 29, 2006 to December 28, 2007:

  1. DIA: [US]: Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: +9.05%
  2. $NDX: [US]: Nasdaq 100 Index: +19.93%
  3. $COMPQ: [US]: Nasdaq Index: +10.73%
  4. SPY: [US]: S&P 500 ETF (Large Cap): +5.06%
  5. MDY: [US]: Midcap 400 ETF (Mid Cap): +8.04%
  6. IWM: [US]: Russell 2000 ETF (Small Cap): -1.91%
  7. EFA: [Int'l]: Developed International Market ETF: +10.64%
  8. EEM: [Int'l]: Emerging International Market ETF: +34.96%
  9. IVE: [US]: S&P 500 Value ETF: +0.17%
  10. IVW: [US]: S&P 500 Growth ETF: +8.55%
  11. IJJ: [US]: Midcap 400 Value ETF: +0.96%
  12. IJK: [US]: Midcap 400 Growth ETF: +13.15%
  13. IWN: [US]: Russell 2000 Value ETF: -11.08%
  14. IWO: [US]: Russell 2000 Growth ETF: +7.42%


Observation 1: 2007 International Returns Trounce US Domestic Returns

The Returns of International Markets, including those from the Developed World (mostly Western Europe, Japan, and Australia) and the Emerging Markets (including China, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, India, Taiwan, South Korea) are doing much better than the US markets. The Emerging Markets (EEM) have done much better than the Developed International Markets.

Observation 2: Outperformance of International Markets is Part of a Multi-Year Trend

The outperformance of International markets, especially Emerging markets, is part of a multi-year trend, where Globalization is a key trend.
  1. 2007 US SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Return: +5.06%
  2. 2006 US SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Return: +14.70%
  3. 2005 US SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Return: +5.13%
  4. 2004 US SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Return: +9.04%

  1. 2007 Int'l EFA (Developed Int'l ETF) Return: +10.64%
  2. 2006 Int'l EFA (Developed Int'l ETF) Return: +25.28%
  3. 2005 Int'l EFA (Developed Int'l ETF) Return: +13.94%
  4. 2004 Int'l EFA (Developed Int'l ETF) Return: +20.56%

  1. 2007 Int'l EEM (Emerging Int'l ETF) Return: +34.96%
  2. 2006 Int'l EEM (Emerging Int'l ETF) Return: +31.15%
  3. 2005 Int'l EEM (Emerging Int'l ETF) Return: +34.19%
  4. 2004 Int'l EEM (Emerging Int'l ETF) Return: +26.25%


Observation 3: 2007 Small Cap Returns lagged Midcap and Large Cap

Small Cap Returns, as represented by the IWM ETF, lagged midcap and large cap returns in 2007.

Observation 4: Small Cap Underperformance is a new trend, breaking multi-year trend

From April 11, 2003 to April 5, 2006:
  1. S&P 500 (Large Cap) Return: +54.77%
  2. Midcap 400 (Mid Cap) Return: +94.98%
  3. Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Return: +113.11%


From April 7, 2006 to December 28, 2007:
  1. S&P 500 (Large Cap) Return: +16.52%
  2. Midcap 400 (Mid Cap) Return: +9.77%
  3. Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Return: +2.99%


For many years, Small Cap stocks have outperformed Large Cap stocks. These trends tend to remain for many years, and we have recently seen the pendulum swing from favoring small cap stocks, to large cap stocks.

Observation 5: 2007: Growth Outperforms Value

In 2007, Growth outperforms Value through all US asset classes.

Observation 6: Growth Outperformance is a New Trend, Breaking Multi-year Trend

From July 28, 2000 to April 4, 2006:
  1. S&P 500 Value ETF: +31.08%
  2. S&P 500 Growth ETF: -24.2%
  3. MidCap 400 Value ETF: +132.78%
  4. MidCap 400 Growth ETF: +29.07%
  5. Russell 2000 Value ETF: +140.68%
  6. Russell 2000 Growth ETF: +7.29%


From April 7, 2006 to December 28, 2007:
  1. S&P 500 Value ETF: +13.47%
  2. S&P 500 Growth ETF: +17.63%
  3. MidCap 400 Value ETF: +5.76%
  4. MidCap 400 Growth ETF: 12.6%
  5. Russell 2000 Value ETF: -2.13%
  6. Russell 2000 Growth ETF: +7.4%


This makes sense. In the 1990s, Growth stocks prevailed and value lagged. From 2000 to sometime around 2006, Growth stocks suffered, and value stocks reigned supreme. Now that the value stock cycle has run its course, we are at the beginning of a multi-year growth stock run.

Observation 7: In 2007, the Large Cap Nasdaq Stocks outperformed

In 2007, the Nasdaq 100, 100 of the largest Nasdaq stocks (which is heavy in high tech stocks) outperformed the Nasdaq thanks to the performance of the larger capitalized stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG).

Observation 8: The outperformance of Nasdaq stocks may be the start of a new trend.

From January 4, 1999 to July 21, 2000:
  1. Nasdaq 100 Index: +110.78%
  2. Nasdaq: +85.44%
  3. S&P 500: +20.06%


From July 20, 2000 to December 19, 2006:
  1. Nasdaq 100 Index: -55.32%
  2. Nasdaq: -41.94%
  3. S&P 500: +0.10%


From December 18, 2006 to December 28, 2007:
  1. Nasdaq 100 Index: +17.65%
  2. Nasdaq: +9.81%
  3. S&P 500: +4.81%


During the different periods, we see the Nasdaq outperform the S&P 500, then underperform the S&P 500 for many years. Recently, we've seen it change, and the Nasdaq is starting to outperform the S&P 500.

Typically the Nasdaq 100 seems to lead the Nasdaq either up or down. During the last period starting December 18, 2006, we notice that the Nasdaq 100 Index is leading the Nasdaq up.

Prediction over next several years:

If we assume that style trends tend to be multi-year trends, then over the next few years, we can predict that:

  1. Large Cap will outperform Small Cap Stocks (Early stages)
  2. Growth Stocks will outperform Value Stocks (Early stages)
  3. Nasdaq stocks and Nasdaq 100 stocks will Lead once again (Early Stages)
  4. International Markets will continue to outperform US stocks (Early to Middle Stages)

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Results of 3 Portfolios: Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout (July 16, 2007)

In a previous article, I described the Cheap Growth Ready to Breakout Screen.

In this post, we will continue to track the performance of three portfolios. We are taking the snapshot as of Monday, July 16, 2007.


==============================
Portfolio 1: February 23, 2007
==============================

=============================================
# Symbol Start End Return
=============================================
1 AMX 47.15 64.87 37.58%
2 TSM 10.91 11.68 7.06%
3 VIP 85.18 112.50 32.07%
4 IPR 74.30 89.00 19.78%
5 AYE 47.90 55.10 15.03%
6 WCRX 14.45 19.17 32.66%
7 BRP 43.42 72.89 67.87%
8 SCS 19.76 18.72 -5.26%
9 MLHR 39.54 33.37 -15.60%
10 AIR 30.61 34.10 11.40%
11 GRT 27.59 24.32 -11.85%
12 DVR 12.49 16.70 33.71%
13 TGI 55.02 70.25 27.68%
14 CRAI 53.88 49.08 -8.91%
15 TLF 7.99 7.10 -11.14%
16 APH 33.89 37.07 9.38%
17 GIL 26.80 35.24 31.49%
18 MIDD 58.88 62.79 6.64%
=========================================
= Total 15.53%
=========================================
SPY 144.10 154.83 7.45%
IWM 81.64 84.48 3.48%
EFA 76.68 83.37 8.72%
=========================================



===========================
Portfolio 2: March 14, 2007
===========================

=============================================
# Symbol Start End Return
=============================================
1 TSM 11.06 11.68 5.61%
2 DISH 42.50 43.92 3.34%
3 WFR 55.05 63.04 14.51%
4 ASX 5.95 7.23 21.51%
5 SPIL 9.18 11.64 26.80%
6 BRP 44.00 72.89 65.66%
7 LAUR 59.28 61.93 4.47%
8 KSU 33.65 40.67 20.86%
9 BEAV 30.73 43.09 40.22%
10 CVO 24.50 23.42 -4.41%
11 IART 43.45 50.30 15.77%
12 KNL 23.00 22.71 -1.26%
13 AIR 30.25 34.10 12.73%
14 MYE 18.24 22.16 21.49%
=============================================
= Total 17.66%
=============================================
SPY 138.13 154.83 12.09%
IWM 76.91 84.48 9.84%
EFA 72.83 83.37 14.47%
=============================================



==========================
Portfolio 3: May 16, 2007
==========================

=============================================
# Symbol Start End Return
=============================================
1 ESV 58.45 60.86 4.12%
2 GSF 65.98 72.07 9.23%
3 TDW 64.90 75.62 16.52%
4 KB 93.35 91.96 -1.49%
5 FCX 71.29 92.94 30.37%
6 VLO 72.03 76.08 5.62%
7 NBG 11.59 12.54 8.20%
8 ACGY 21.35 26.72 25.15%
9 AYR 35.98 38.78 7.78%
10 FTI 73.68 88.97 20.75%
11 HXM 62.29 61.50 -1.27%
12 SZE 57.58 57.11 -0.82%
13 SLB 76.50 90.54 18.35%
14 CLB 92.77 106.41 14.70%
15 CKR 20.38 19.51 -4.27%
16 CEPH 80.14 82.28 2.67%
17 TDK 87.55 92.02 5.11%
18 SNDA 26.65 33.04 23.98%
19 LKQX 24.30 25.38 4.44%
=============================================
= Total 9.96%
=============================================
SPY 150.95 154.83 2.57%
IWM 81.26 84.48 3.96%
EFA 80.14 83.37 4.03%
=============================================





SPY is an ETF that represents that S&P 500 US Large Cap Index.
IWM is an ETF that represents the US Small Cap Russell 2000 index.
EFA is an ETF that represents the developed international market index covering Europe, Japan, and Australia.

Based on this, the three portfolios performed (until July 16, 2007)

  1. February 23, 2007: 15.53% return, outperforming all three indices by 8.94% to 14.19%.
  2. March 14, 2007: 17.66% return, outperforming all three indices by 3.19% to 7.82%
  3. May 16, 2007: 9.96% return, outperforming all three indices from 13.63% to 15.09%


So far, this screen seems to be performing very well. Let us continue to monitor.

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Next Generation Apple iPhone will have GPS chips

According to AppleTech TV news, the next generation of Apple iPhone may have GPS chips.

This makes sense as Location Based Services are going to increasingly integrated into anything that moves from cars, to cell phones, to cameras.

SIRF, the Leading maker of GPS Chips looks to benefit from this trend and it is very cheap here. Using information from Yahoo Finance:

Price: 22.98
Forward PE: 17.28 (yesterday, it was 16.39)
5 Year Estimated Growth: 30%
PE/G: .57

A PEG ratio of .57 (less than 1 is dirt cheap) for great growth is a bargain. GPS chips will be everywhere, and SIRF is a leader in this area. Global Locate, a private company, is a competitor, but I see SIRF remaining dominant in this area.

When you compare other companies in the location based service area by looking at their forward PE:
Garmin (GRMN): 19.98
Navteq (NVT): 27.60

SIRF looks cheap here for its growth.

Lenny Dykstra of TheStreet.com also had some good things to write about SIRF.

For the long term, SIRF looks like a buy here, but be aware of the volatility and keep your eye out for any real competitors which I do not see right now.