Is September 2015 the start of a great Stock Market Crash? End of 7 year cycle, and September is worst month

After a seven year strong stock bull market in the U.S.A. since 2009 with hardly any stock corrections, is September 2015 the beginnings of a great Stock Market Crash?

September is seasonally the worst month of the year for stocks.

2015 is also likely the end of a surprisingly regular 7 year cycle.

An article from zerohedge.com points out this pattern:

1. 1973: Oil Shock/Stocks Crash
2. 1980: US Recession
3. 1987: Stock Market Crash
4. 1994: Bond Market Crash
5. 2001: 9-11 / Stocks Crash
6. 2008: Subprime / Stocks Crash
7. 2015 EM / Stock Crash???

Do you notice the seven year pattern?

The fact that the economy goes in cycles in not surprising, so any stock market cycle such as this won't be that surprising.

The Great Unwind and False Prosperity?

Regarding this most recent cycle, the case can be made that as a way to recover from the 2008 Stock Market Crash, the Fed started lowering rates to virtually zero and started printing money like crazy with many Quantitative Easing programs (QE). Yet for around 7 years, the Fed didn't raise rates, and only recently stopped the QE programs.

For seven years, "Follow the Fed" was profitable, and going long in housing and stocks was profitable, as the Fed's policies boosted those asset classes. However, recently, the Fed stopped the Quantitative Easing programs and may be on the verge of raising rates.

But what happens when the Fed starts to unwind its positions? Will we start to see the effects of The Great Unwind?

Over the last seven years, the Fed induced asset boosting policies create a form of an artificial prosperity that will eventually be undone. All the imbalances that have been accumulated will finally end, and in order to correct, a Stock Market Crash, or a even a multi-year time correction (sideways for many years) might be needed.

The risks are high for some sort of event or a multi-year time frame where imbalances will be corrected. Future stock market annual returns for many years are likely going to be below long term averages.

Housing Market Bubble?

Over the last seven years, we have gone from housing recovery to a potential housing bubble. The median income to buy a home in the Bay Area, Northern California is $142,448.33. 

And there is evidence that the housing bubble may be forming beyond California.

Public and Private Debt and too much spending:

Both government and consumer debt is increasing. Government Debt as a ratio of GDP is now 80% (and the total debt is around $18 Trillion). Private debt (including consumer debt and education loans) is approximating 260% of GDP.

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China:

China is also experiencing a stock market crash.

Also, China is holding a large amount of U.S. treasuries. There might be evidence that China is already dumping some of these?

Oil:

Oil and commodities have been crashing, and some people have said that commodities and oil are leading indicators of an economy and the stock market.

CNBC's Ron Insana says:

"We already have evidence that the commodity crash has ominous portents for the rest of the world:

* Japan’s recession is deeper than previously thought.

* China’s demand for basic materials, amid a glut of uneconomic construction projects, appears to be plummeting.

* Russia’s ruble has collapsed and the country is on the brink, if not already in, a recession.

* India’s economic recovery is beginning to look shaky.

* Europe’s growth rate and inflation rate, for the next two years, were just revised downward by the European Central Bank, suggesting that Europe’s economic crisis is far from over. In fact, at least one former European leader with whom I recently spoke, believes the crisis in Europe may just be in its early stages.

* Brazil and other emerging market nations are struggling with a variety of issues, from recessions at home, to the rising value of the dollar, which is complicating how emerging markets conduct economic policies at home, given how closely their currencies are tied to the greenback."

Former Advisor to Britain's Gordon Brown even warns of a Stock Crash and to be prepared for Civil Unrest and bank problems.

A former advisor to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.

Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.

“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work,” he tweeted.

“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”

 “We were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn't worked),” he said. “and what's coming is on 20 times that scale”.

Does this former adviser know something we don't?

Time to sell stocks?

Risk is definitely high now. Seriously consider your asset allocation and your goals. Consider taking some profits, and sell some equities if possible. Build up cash reserves. Use any potential rallies to sell.

The future down cycle will eventually end, and there will be great investing opportunities at that time.

Is USA Doomed to Repeat 1921-1945: Prosperity, Depression, Totalitarianism, World War?

Is the USA Doomed to Repeat 1921-1945: Prosperity, Depression, Totalitarianism, Major War?

In a previous post, we speculated that there is an 84 year cycle which includes an 84 year Major War Cycle.

In 1921 to 1929, we had the Roaring Twenties, a time of great Prosperity.  There was great economic prosperity, the stock market had a large runup, and the 1920s was a decade of increased consumer spending and economic growth.  The Federal Reserve expanded credit, and set rates very low, and more people started buying on margin.

The Roaring Twenties was also a time of new products and technologies including Mass Production and Henry Ford's Model T, and the creation of infrastructure such as highways and expressways, funded by the government.  (Federal Income Taxes were created in 1913).

No one could see what would come on October 29, 1929, Black Tuesday, a Great Stock Market Crash on Wall Street, signalling the beginning of the Great Depression which lasted around 1929 to 1939 (or middle of the 1940s).

During this time of the Great Depression, there was a rise (in Europe) of more Fascist, Totalitarian regimes such as the rise of the Nazi Party in Germany from 1933 to 1945.

And the rise of Nazism helped start World War 2 (from 1938 to 1945).

Is it happening now?

2013 will be the 84th anniversary of Black Tuesday, the Major Market Crash in 1929.  There has been research and observation showing that there is a logical reason for the 84 year cycles, and it has to do with four distinct generations in a major 84 year cycle.

We've had great Prosperity (in the mid 1990s and the early 2000s), which reminds of the Roaring Twenties.

And there are many economic signs pointing to a long term economic stagnation, collapse or depression.   We may not be in the run of the mill downturn.  Demographics are against the U.S. as the Population is Aging, and there are less people to support an ever increasing dependent population, and this aging population has been shown to correlate with the Stock Market's Price to Earnings Multiple.

In addition, since the United States Federal Debt to GDP Ratio is now 100% and growing, there will be a long term debt overhang. There is a study by Carmen Reinhart (Peterson Institute for International Economics, NBER, CEPR), Vincent Reinhart (Morgan Stanley) and Kenneth Rogoff (from Harvard University and NBER) that shows those cases in history where debt to GDP exceeded 90%, experienced suboptimal growth lasting an average of 23 years.

Depressions can lead to Totalitarian Regimes (it may happen in other places such as Europe, which is going through their own economic upheaval including problems in the Eurozone, Spain and Greece.  Even France had their credit rating reduced).

Finally, everything can culminate in a major war.

Possible Schedule:

Start Yr	End Yr	Past Event	Start Yr	End Yr	Event
1921	1929	Roaring Twenties	1995	2013	Prosperity
1929	1939	Great Depression	2013	2023	Depression
1933	1945	Nazism	2017	2029	Totalitarianism
1938	1945	World War 2	2022	2029	Major War

What does the U.S. Federal Government Spend Money on?

What does the United States Federal Goverment Spend their money on?

In 2012, the breakdown is as follows:

In the chart above, over 62% of the 2012 US Federal Budget was spent on Entitlements including Health Care, Social Security, Pensions, Medicare and Medicaid.  The next largest group is National Defense at 19%.  Net Interest is at 6%, and that leaves 13% for all other spending including subsidies, major Departments, Education, and Foreign Affairs. 

Since in 2012, spending as a percentage of GDP was 23% and revenue was 16.1% (with the long term average revenue as a percentage of GDP from 1944 to 2012 to be around 18%), that is a large percentage difference just to break even on the deficit. 

Let us say that we can bring up revenue to the long term average of 18% of GDP, and that means to break even, the United States would have to cut spending by around 20%. 

This means that even if we spread the reductions over many years, we would have to raise Revenue to 18% of GDP and then cut the Entire National Defense Budget.  Or, raise Revenue to 18% of GDP, cut the National Defense Budget in half, and then cut all Foreign Affairs, the entire Education budget, and almost all Departments and subsidies.  This is going to be painful even if we spread it out over many years.

Looking forward many years, it will even be worse.

In the chart above, we see that Entitlements (Medicaid, Obamacare, Medicare, Social Security) and Net Interest are going to completely dominate the U.S. Revenue as a Percentage of GDP.

This makes intuitive sense.  Net Interest should rise because we already have $16 Trillion in U.S. Federal National Debt, and we are adding more each year with large deficits, and Interest Rates are likely going to rise.  Entitlements would continue to increase because of the Aging Population, Retiring Baby Boomers (starting in 2011), and more expensive medical costs.

This is not sustainable.  Major reforms will have to be be done including and especially major Entitlement reforms or else this U.S. Economy will have a major collapse or another Great Depression.

About the Data:

Data from the Office of Managment and Budget, the Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario), and charts produced by Heritage. 

Does the U.S. have a Spending or Revenue Problem? US Debt and Deficit

Does the United States have a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?

Since 1960, the United States has been on a Spending Trajectory, and the annual deficit over the last four years has been over $1 Trillion Dollars.

The Current U.S. National Debt is around $16 Trillion, and it is now over 100% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

But is it a U.S. Spending Problem or a Revenue Problem?

In the chart above, we see Spending and Revenue as a Percentage of GDP. 

Revenue since 1960 has remained in a narrow range of GDP and averages 18.1% over that time.  In that time, even if tax rates vary significantly, the Revenue has stayed in this narrow range with an 18.1% of GDP average.

Spending, on the other hand, has averaged 20.2% of GDP.  Since the Government can continue to borrow (with the Federal Reserve printing money), and since Government can continue to spend without any solid limit, you can easily forecast spending to continue growing.  When you consider a bulk of those annual payments goes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and since the U.S. Population is Aging and the Baby Boomers are starting to retire starting in 2011, you can imagine spending to continue to increase as a percentage of GDP.

So with Spending continuing to increase as a percent of GDP, and Revenue remaining a relatively constant 18% of GDP, you can see how the U.S. Debt Problem can grow year after year to create a crisis economic situation possibly leading to long term decade or multi-decade economic stagnation, or recession or depression.

The Problem the United States is having is a Spending Problem and not a Revenue Problem.

The Data:

Charts were created by this site, and Heritage.org, and data from the Congressional Budget Office.
The Spending and Revenue Chart above is based on the CBO's 2012 Long Term Outlook report, using the Externded Alternative Fiscal Scenario, Table 1-2. 

"I have a Sum of Money to Invest. How do I invest it?"

Question:

I have a sum of money to invest. How do I invest it?

Answer:

Before you can think of investing this sum, let us go through these questions:

1. Do you have high interest rate credit card or card loan debt? For example, credit card debt greater than 10%? If so, you can use this money to payoff the debt. If you hold a balance on a credit card that charges you 15%, then if you pay off this debt, you are getting a 15% RISK-FREE return! If you invest in the stock market, expect to gain 8-10% average per year over a very long time (yes, you can gain 20% in a year, then next year, lose 10%), with risk. The better deal is paying off your high credit card debt.

2. Do you have a three to six month emergency cash fund in case you lose your income? If not, you may want to start that fund, by putting the money in a high yielding savings account (getting at least 5% at this time). If you have a safety net (such as having supportive parents), then maybe you can have a smaller emergeny fund.

3. Do you need the money within five years or less? For example, you need the money for a downpayment on a house. Then maybe you shouldn't invest the money in a stock market. You may want to put this money in a high yielding savings account as mentioned above. If you can take a bit more risk, and you don't need the money for 3 years (but need it by 5 years), you can look for a good no load, no transaction fee, Balanced Mutual Fund. A Balanced Mutual fund is a mutual fund that often has a 60% weighting in equities and 40% in bonds.

4. If you don't need to use the money within 5 years, then you can be more aggressive and go with a higher percentage of equities (stocks or stock mutual funds). The next question is whether you have saved at least $1000. If you have not saved at least $1000, start saving using a high yielding money market or savings account until you reach $1000.

5. If you have $1000 or more, start learning more about the stock market and investing.

6. Once you are comfortable with at least a primer on investing, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and the stock market, you can now open a Brokerage account from brokerages such as E*Trade or Ameritrade.

7. Do you have between $1000 and $5000 to invest? Then I would recommend investing in diversified mutual funds or ETFs. ETFs are Exchange Traded Funds, or mutual funds that are often indexed, that trade just like stocks. For example, you can buy and sell DIA ETF from any broker. DIA represents the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. One company which provides ETFs that are sold by almost any broker is Barclays Ishares.

A Sample ETF portfolio:

1. SPY: S&P 500 ETF representing approximately the largest 500 US Stocks.
   
2. IWM: IShares US Small Capitalization ETF representing the smaller capitalization US Stocks.
   
3. EFA: IShares International Developed Markets including Europe, Japan and Australia.
   
4. EEM: IShares International Emerging Markets including Korea, Taiwan, China, Mexico, Brazil, India, Russia.
   

8. Do you have at least $5000 to invest, and do you have the time an inclination to study stocks and learn more about the market? If you do not, then you can continue using the mutual fund and ETF strategy mentioned above.

9. If you have at least $5000 to invest, and you do have the time and inclination to study stocks and learn more about the market, then you can now invest in individual stocks. You have to continue reading and learning and go deeper in the recommended book list.

10. Once you've studied enough about individual stocks, you can aim to have a 5 to 10 stock diversified portfolio (as recommended by Jim Cramer in his Book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World"). Each stock has to be in a different sector for true diversification. Expect to spend one hour each week studying each position. That's why it is difficult to have a portfolio of more than ten stocks because you won't have time to keep track. Of course, you can choose to have a mixed portfolio of ETFs and individual stocks. Also, if you can keep track of more stocks, you can have a portfolio of up to 20 individual stocks.

11. EXCEPTION: If you are very young (college aged or early 20s), and you have at least $3000, and you have the time and inclination to invest in individual stocks, then go ahead an invest in individual stocks. You are young and you can take more risks than someone who is close to retirement. If you only have $3000, you can start with three positions at $1k each, and as you save more money, you can continue adding money until you have a 5 stock portfolio.

12. NOTE ON COMMISSIONS: Be careful about commissions. If it costs you $10 to buy a stock, and sell a stock, then if your position is $500, then that means it costs $20 per $500 position, or $20/$500 = 4%. That means, for every transaction, you are spotting the market 4%! This is not acceptable. You should have larger position sizes but make sure that you have enough diversification (at least 5 stocks in 5 different sectors). The exception in point #11 above still holds.



Don't forget to continue reading and learning! I hope you enjoy the journey and make lots of money in the process.