Showing posts with label major market top. Show all posts
Showing posts with label major market top. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Trading the Largest 16 Year Stock Market Trading Range: Major Market Top or Breakout

The U.S. Stock Market as represented by the S&P 500 Index is in a major 16 Year Trading Range from 1997 to 2012.


The Low of the trading range is around 666, which was reached January 2009.  The S&P 500 last reached that level around the 1996-1997 timeframe.

The High of the Trading Range reached a level of 1576 on October 2007.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at 1444, around 9% below the all time highs.

There is Major Stock Market Resistance around the 1550-1576 level.

One Trading Range Strategy could be:
1. Take Profits or Sell the S&P 500 between here and the 1550 to 1576 level.

2. If the S&P 500 has a solid breakout past 1576 with confirmation, Buy the S&P 500 with a Stop Near Support (around 1576).

3. If the S&P 500 reaches near the bottom of the trading range channel (a drop of 54% from here (1444)), Buy the S&P 500 (or cover the S&P 500 Short Position)

4. If the S&P 500 breaks down below the bottom of the trading range channel (below 666) with confirmation, Sell the S&P 500, with a Stop Near Resistance (666).

So even if the S&P 500 stays within the Large Trading Channel, that could still mean very large drops (or rallies) in the Stock Market as represented by the S&P 500.