Showing posts with label PEP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PEP. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Undervalued Stocks with Respect to Growth and Yield (PEG+Y Ratio)

As the Stock Market including the U.S. S&P 500 Index goes down, experienced people say you should start creating a wish list of companies to buy at lower levels.

One measure of valuation is the PEG+Y Ratio which is the Forward Price Earnings Ratio divided by the Five Year Estimated Growth Rate Plus Yield:

PEG+Y = (Forward Price Earnings Ratio) / (5 Year Estimated Growth Rate + Yield)

PEGY (simpler form is the PEG Ratio) of less than 1 is a great value. A PEGY ratio of greater than 2 (or some other value like 1.5) can be considered overvalued.

Here are some PEG+Y Ratios of some popular companies:




# Symbol Company PEG+YCurrent Price Forward P/E 5 Year Growth Rate Forward Yield
1 CEDC Central European Distribution 0.15 6.08 7.07 46.62 0.00
2 BTU Peabody Energy 0.16 31.61 5.56 33.05 1.00
3 SI Siemens 0.22 86.96 8.37 35.50 3.00
4 FCX Freeport-McMoran 0.27 29.87 4.99 15.06 3.30
5 AEA Advance America 0.37 7.12 6.72 15.00 3.40
6 BAC Bank of America 0.38 5.53 4.61 11.48 0.70
7 LVS Las Vegas Sands0.38 36.7114.8630.080.00
8 VE Veolia 0.41 13.78 9.44 13.15 10.10
9 NXG Northgate Minerals 0.42 3.26 15.52 36.80 0.00
10 JPM JP Morgan 0.44 28.65 5.4 8.96 3.30
11 SHFL Shuffle Master 0.45 7.74 11.22 25.00 0.00
12 GLW Corning Glassware 0.46 11.88 6 11.50 1.60
13 HRS Harris Corp 0.47 33.23 6.09 9.63 3.30
14 CNQ Canadian Natural Resources 0.49 27.59 7.79 14.701.20
15 WFC Wells Fargo 0.50 23.18 6.94 12.00 2.00
16 ABB ABB Ltd 0.50 16.42 8.6 13.40 3.90
17 GE General Electric 0.50 14.69 9.3 14.74 3.90
18 BIDU Baidu 0.50 105.16 23.9 47.65 0.00
19 AAPL Apple 0.51 374.6 11.47 22.69 0.00
20 NIHD NII Holdings Inc. 0.51 25.06 9.49 18.66 0.00
21 NTES NetEase 0.52 36.35 8.95 17.30 0.00
22 CAT Caterpillar 0.53 70.55 7.94 12.44 2.50
23 PCLN Priceline 0.54 445.75 15.23 28.31 0.00
24 GILD Gilead 0.54 37.81 8.4 15.43 0.00
25 RTN Raytheon 0.55 39.5 7.22 9.00 4.20
26 INTC Intel 0.56 20.62 8.35 11.03 3.90
27 SLB Schlumberger 0.56 57.72 10.67 17.32 1.70
28 GS Goldman Sachs 0.57 90.08 5.97 9.04 1.50
29 TDG Transdigm Group 0.57 77.38 14.2 24.97 0.00
30 NFLX Netflix 0.59 113.25 17.37 29.32 0.00
31 CELG Celgene 0.59 60.7 14.35 24.16 0.00
32 GEOY Geo Eye 0.61 27.12 10.72 17.50 0.00
33 GOOG Google 0.61 495.52 11.8 19.21 0.00
34 HCBK Hudson City Bancorp 0.64 5.31 6.9 5.00 5.70
35 PM Philip Morris 0.65 61.76 11.88 13.26 4.90
36 SWY Safeway 0.66 16.32 8.77 9.78 3.50
37 DECK Deckers 0.67 88.11 15.09 22.50 0.00
38 LOW Lowe's 0.68 18.98 10.66 12.73 2.90
39 MDRX AllScripts 0.69 16.99 15.88 23.11 0.00
40 HD Home Depot 0.71 31.59 11.79 13.51 3.00
41 TRMB Trimble Navigation 0.73 32.42 13.4 18.25 0.00
42 MA Mastercard0.74 310.88 14.92 19.84 0.20
43 CSCO Cisco 0.76 15.19 8.08 9.20 1.50
44 RIG Transocean 0.76 45.91 7.77 3.65 6.60
45 DEO Diageo 0.79 75.15 11.82 10.70 4.30
46 TGT Target 0.82 47.8 11.01 10.96 2.40
47 WMT Walmart 0.83 51.96 10.63 10.00 2.80
48 AMX America Movil 0.84 21.5 9.51 9.95 1.40
49 ATVI Activision 0.85 11.95 12.85 13.68 1.40
50 MO Altria Group 0.86 26.56 12.13 8.00 6.10
51 INFY Infosys 0.87 50.04 15.44 16.14 1.70
52 CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange 0.87 248.5 12.76 12.44 2.30
53 IBM IBM 0.87 173.29 11.74 11.83 1.70
54 CVS CVS Caremark 0.87 32.97 10.34 10.35 1.50
55 GME Gamestop 0.88 22.97 7.32 8.34 0.00
56 IGT International Game Technology 0.89 13.73 12.15 11.99 1.70
57 ECOL US Ecology 0.90 15.05 14.07 11.00 4.70
58 XOM Exxon Mobil 0.90 71.15 8.14 6.47 2.60
59 WM Waste Management 0.90 31.36 12.85 10.00 4.20
60 JACK Jack in the Box 0.92 19.26 10.82 11.80 0.00
61 WEN Wendy's 0.92 4.46 19.39 19.28 1.70
62 YUM YUM Brands 1.02 48.45 15.09 12.56 2.30
63 PEP Pepsi 1.06 60.29 12.51 8.55 3.30
64 ERTS Electronic Arts 1.06 19.76 16.61 15.73 0.00
65 MON Monsanto 1.08 60.11 17.58 14.30 2.00
66 VCLK Value Click 1.08 14.92 13.44 12.43 0.00
67 UL Unilever 1.10 30.56 12.18 7.00 4.10
68 PG Procter and Gamble 1.12 62.84 13.63 8.90 3.30
69 T AT&T 1.14 28.16 11.09 3.77 6.00
70 MCD McDonalds 1.14 86.02 15.06 10.01 3.20
71 QSII Quality Systems 1.15 92.11 26.85 21.95 1.40
72 SNDA Shanda Interactive 1.1728.86 15.86 13.53 0.00
73 K Kellogg 1.18 52.88 13.95 8.65 3.20
74 GIS General Mills 1.24 37.96 13.41 7.60 3.20
75 SWK Stanley Black and Decker 1.26 48.25 7.91 3.00 3.30
76 YHOO Yahoo 1.2713.53 16.3 12.84 0.00
77 HMSY HMS Holdings 1.27 22.95 31.01 24.33 0.00
78 JNJ Johnson and Johnson 1.28 62.08 11.74 5.58 3.60
79 HAIN Hain Celestial 1.28 28.31 16.27 12.70 0.00
80 PCP Precision Castparts 1.28 148.33 14.29 11.05 0.10
81 HRL Hormel Foods 1.31 26.53 14.99 9.50 1.90
82 ISRG Intuitive Surgical 1.39 348.76 25.81 18.62 0.00
83 KO Coca Cola 1.42 65.42 15.29 8.00 2.80
84 HANS Hansen Natural 1.43 79.76 22.4 15.70 0.00
85 WFM Whole Foods 1.44 62.44 27.75 18.70 0.60
86 CERN Cerner 1.48 65.56 29.53 19.89 0.00
87 SGMS Scientific Games 1.50 6.63 14.41 9.63 0.00
88 COST Costco 1.52 81.63 21.26 12.77 1.20
89 GRMN Garmin 1.56 30.6 14.17 4.10 5.00
90 COP Conoco Philips 1.6160.99 7.07 0.20 4.20
91 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill 1.65 292.7 33.88 20.50 0.00
92 CLH Clean Harbors 1.69 47.83 20.18 11.93 0.00
93 AMT American Towers 1.98 52.86 38.58 19.46 0.00
94 AMZN Amazon 2.39 211.98 66.24 27.67 0.00
95 RGR Sturm Ruger 5.80 24.63 12.76 0.00 2.20

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Are Large Cap Consumer Staple and Health Care Stocks Really Recession Proof?

A recent poster on this blog commented on the "Anti-Recession Stocks that can survive a US Slowdown" blog post. The poster said:

Well you were most certainly wrong. Too bad folks like you can't get out of the mindset that just because a company is big and been around a while doesn't mean it's stock will do well.

Let's evaluate the stocks chosen in the previous blog entry to see whether or not the stock selection was wrong. The assumption is that large consumer staple and health care stocks tend to survive slowdowns and recessions.

Assumption: Sector Rotation

But first, let us look at an assumption. Let us assume that a portfolio is 100% in stocks, and whether the market goes down or up, the portfolio manager (you) has to remain 100% invested. In this case, we have to either hold the stocks we currently own, or we have to rotate into other stocks.

Many professional money managers have to do the same. They are supposed to maintain a percentage of their fund in equities, and when the market goes down, they could rotate stocks from one sector to another.

The Slowdown/Recession playbook tells us to rotate into large cap consumer staples and health care stocks as a safer investment to ride out the slowdown or recession.

With this assumption in mind, six stocks were selected in the previous blog post that were "anti-recession." Most are large cap, consumer staple or healthcare stocks, except one, Sun Healthcare (SUNH) which is a small cap health care stock.

Performance of the Stocks

From January 7, 2008 (around the time the previous blog entry was written) to today, July 15, 2008, here is the performance of the stocks:



  1. SPY (S&P 500 ETF): -13.47%
  2. PG (Procter and Gamble): -10.27%
  3. UL (Unilever): -25.97%
  4. MO (Altria): -11%
  5. GILD (Gilead): +15.28%
  6. SUNH (Sun Healthcare): -17.71%
  7. PEP (Pepsi): -14.2%


All of the results above do not include dividends. If you include dividends, the performance of the stocks above would be better.

In addition, instead of choosing SUNH, we had chosen it's competitor, Kindred Healthcare (KND), the return during this period of KND would have been +20.16% instead of SUNH's -17.71%

The Results

Period: January 7, 2008 to July 15, 2008:


Average of the Six Anti-Recession Stocks (no dividends): -10.65%
S&P 500 Performance: -13.47%


The Six "anti-recession" stocks outperformed the market by almost 3%. In this difficult bear market, outperforming the market is a good thing.

Check Performance Now

Biotech has been breaking out

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Build Your Own High Gain Stock Portfolio, One Sector At a Time

There are many ways to construct your own stock portfolio.

One way to create a diversified portfolio is to choose stocks from different sectors that follow these criteria:

  1. The stock is in a good sector.
  2. The stock is a good stock in a good sector.
  3. The stock has Reasonable Valuation:
    a. PEG < 2.0 (Price-Earnings to Growth Ratio).
    b. Forward PE < 40
  4. The stock shows Strength:
    a. Stock is within reach of a 52 week high.
    b. Stock is above the moving averages (200 day, and even 50 day moving average).

Here are a few suggestions that mostly fit the criteria above. One could create a portfolio by choosing a stock or a few stocks from each sector below.

A. Tech: Internet and Information

We are in the middle of a society changing Information Revolution, and the Internet plays a central role.

SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
GOOGGoogle0.91 3133.88%


B. Tech: Mobile Convergence and Mobile Devices

One of the major trends is the trend towards Mobile Convergence. Rather than have separate devices, such as a cell phone, a camera, and a music player, all these features are being integrated into a single mobile device. The Apple Iphone is a web browser, a music player, and a cell phone. Cell phones now come with cameras and music playing capabilities.

In addition, globalization is helping this sector out as international and emerging markets are adopting these mobile technologies in great numbers. One Indian person has even said that in India, even beggars have cell phones.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
AAPLApple1.6637.5222.63%
RIMMResearch In Motion1.0435.0633.61%
NOKNokia1.4017.0612.22%


Aside from the Apple iphone, Apple (AAPL) has many other products as well such as the Apple iPod music player, and the Apple iMac computer.

Nokia (NOK), is also a play on Global Positioning as it is acquiring Digital Map Maker Navteq (NVT).

C. Tech: Networking/Digital TV/Telecom Equipment

Another trend is in the Network.
  1. There is a trend having greater Bandwidth for advanced services (for example, High Definition Video on Demand).
  2. There's the conversion of analog TV to digital TV. On February 2009, companies are supposed to stop broadcasting analog television, and are supposed to broadcast digitally.
  3. There is the Battle for the Digital Living Room. From IP Television (IPTV), to Digital TV, to High Definition TV sets, to Digital Video Recorder Technology (DVRs), to digital set-top boxes, to streaming content from computers to the big screen, the battle for the Digital Living Room is just beginning.
  4. The trend also includes wireless telecommunication systems that help bring advanced services (video on a cell phone) to mobile devices.






SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
CSCOCisco1.2517.6414.10%
GLWCorning0.9515.8016.57%
NNDSNDS Group0.6916.3923.75%
HRSHarris0.5815.6827.00%



Cisco (CSCO) is the big company in Networking. They also have Set-Top Box exposure (access to the Digital Living Room) with their acquisition of Set Top Box maker Scientific Atlanta.

Corning (GLW) makes glass and equipment for higher bandwidth optical networking. They are also a play on the Digital Living Room as their products are needed by those who make flat panel displays and High Definition TVs.

NDS Group (NNDS) is the United Kingdom's version of the overhyped Chinese company China Digital TV (STV). The company engages in the supply of open end-to-end digital technology and services to digital pay-television platform operators and content providers worldwide. They even supply middleware and Digital Video Recorder Technologies, and Set-Top Boxes, and they support high definition TV.

Harris (HRS) is a company which operates in four main segments from Government Communication Systems, RF Communications, Broadcast Communications and wireless networking through Harris Stratex (HPTX). Their Broadcast Communications Group is involved Digital TV. They also benefit from a good win rate on government contracts.

D. Tech: GPS and Global Positioning

A major growth area in tech is in Global Positioning Technlogies. This technology is more than just turn by turn directions on a navigation device. In the future, as part of Mobile Convergence, GPS will be integrated into almost any device which can move, such as a cell phone.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
GRMNGarmin1.4428.0619.53%
TRMBTrimble1.8628.9415.60%
SIRFSirf Technologies0.7720.4426.62%


Garmin (GRMN) mainly makes Global Positioning Devices. They are big in the car navigation and aeroplane navigation market. Recent concerns include the intended acquisition of their Digital Map Supplier Navteq (NVT) by Nokia (NOK).

Trimble Navigation (TRMB) makes GPS products. They are also a unique play on the good Agriculture market, as they even have GPS equipment for farm equipment and tractors.

Sirf Technologies (SIRF) makes GPS semiconductors. Their chips are finding their way into devices such as cell phones.

E. Tech/Consumer Discretionary: Computer, Video and Online Gaming

The strong Gaming cycle is continuing as three major console makers (Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony) have released major consoles.

There are also up and coming new trends such as online gaming, especially in East Asia (China).




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
GMEGamestop1.3628.9221.22%
SNDAShanda Interactive0.6421.2633.26%


Gamestop (GME) is the premiere gaming retailer. Why choose the winner of the console or software maker war when you can buy the retailer who sells all these products.

Shanda Interactive (SNDA) together with The9 Limited (NCTY) are dominant Chinese Online Gaming companies poised for great growth.


F. Energy: Oil and Oil Services.

Energy and Oil remain strong sectors. There's great demand as countries all over the world, especially the emerging market countries, need oil. Supply is limited as well, and harder to come by.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
COPConoco Philips0.939.199.92%
NOVNational Oilwell Varco0.6017.8929.67%


Conoco Philips (COP) is an integrated oil company, while National Oilwell Varco (NOV) is an Oil Services and Equipment Company, and operates three segments: Rig Technology, Petroleum Services and Distribution Services.

G. Energy: Coal

Energy sources such as oil are in great demand. Coal, a very inexpensive fossil fuel, benefits from the great demand in energy.



SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
BTUPeabody Energy0.939.199.92%


H. Materials

Freeport McMoran (FCX) is a gold and copper company, and both are needed by rapidly growing emerging market countries such as China.

Precision Castparts (PCP) manufactures metal components used in the aerospace, power generation, general industrial, and automotive markets. There's a bull market in aerospace and infrastructure, and Precision Castparts benefits.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
FCXFreeport McMoran0.9810.8211.00%
PCPPrecision Castparts0.8518.1321.23%


I. Agriculture

There's a Bull market in agriculture, thanks to an influential US Farm Bill in 2002.

Monsanto (MON) makes seeds, including very specialized and drought resistant seeds. Deere (DE) makes agricultural equipment. Trimble Navigation (TRMB) is also an unusual play on agriculture as they provide GPS products to many places, including tractors and the agriculture industry.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
MONMonsanto0.9529.5330.93%
DEDeere1.7516.219.25%


J. Aerospace and Defense

There's a Bull market in Aerospace and Defense thanks to the aeroplane replacement cycle. Many of the older planes have to be replaced.

Boeing (BA) makes airplanes and is a better play than competitor Airbus. Transdigm Group (TDG) is a $2B company that supplies parts to the Aerospace industry. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a defense contractor that makes many defense products, including military aircraft.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
BABoeing1.0815.8614.70%
TDGTransdigm Group0.6418.2428.50%
LMTLockheed Martin1.3315.3111.52%


K. Infrastructure

With great global growth comes a great need for Infrastructure.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
ABBABB Limited0.8320.6325.00%
MDRMcDermott1.3822.0116.00%


L. Telecom: Emerging Market Wireless Telecom

Emerging Markets are using wireless products in large numbers. Many emerging countries have low wireless penetration so there is even more room to grow.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
AMXAmerica Movil0.4915.8932.65%
VIPVimpel Communications0.7517.4923.37%
CHLChina Mobile0.9824.6625.14%


M. Financials

Goldman Sachs (GS) is the premier brokerage company, the gold standard.

Hudson City Bank (HCBK) is a fast growing regional bank that has very little exposure to the subprime problems, and some have speculated that along with other Northeastern banks, could be taken over by Canadian banks and other companies.



SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
GSGoldman Sachs0.769.9113.12%
HCBKHudson City Bank1.0918.7317.15%



N. Asset Management Companies

Everyone is looking for the next Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Warren Buffett's company.

One very good company in the mold of Berkshire Hathaway is the cash rich Leucadia (LUK), run for many years by super investors Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg.

Carl Icahn, another superinvestor, gives us Carl Icahn Enterprises (IEP), (Formerly American Real Estate partners (ACP)) and offers investors a way to invest with this great activist investor. Watch out for guru investors with a lot of cash to use.



SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
LUKLeucadiaN/AN/AN/A
IEPCarl Icahn EnterpriseN/AN/AN/A


O. Consumer Staples




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
PGProcter and Gamble1.6018.0711.31%
ULUnilever0.9615.3416.00%


P. Consumer Staples: Drinks and Beverages

Hansen (HANS) is a fast growing beverage company specializing in Energy Drinks.

Central European Distribution (CEDC) is a Polish drink and Vodka producer.





SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
PEPPepsi1.7419.2211.03%
HANSHansen Natural0.7630.0639.63%
CEDCCentral European Distribution1.2922.5217.50%


Q. Consumer Discretionary: Gambling Equipment

Scientific Games (SGMS) makes equipment for Lotteries, Printed Products, and Diversified Gaming. Some say this is a recession proof stock.

International Game Technology (IGT) makes Gaming Equipment for Casinos.




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
SGMSScientific Games1.0623.9422.66%
IGTInternational Game Technology1.6925.3617.20%


R. Industrials




SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
GEGeneral Electric1.4716.3111.09%
UTXUnited Technologies1.4016.3911.72%


S. Healthcare



SymbolStock NamePEGForward PE5 yr growth
GILDGilead1.3523.3017.20%

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Drink and Soda Stocks By the Numbers

In this article, we look at different Drink and Soda Stocks and look purely at the raw numbers. (Data taken from Yahoo Finance on Thursday, June 21, 2007):










SymbolStock NameMyPEGForward PE5 yr growthYield
HANSHansen Natural0.77 22.8028.60%0%
CEDCCentral European Distribution0.9618.1017.50%0%
STZConstellation Brands1.2514.4811.50%0%
JSDAJones Soda1.2746.8834.00%0%
DEODiageo1.3017.2210.50%2.30
PEPPepsi1.3217.8511.00%2.30
BUDAnheuser-Busch1.5217.139.00%2.20%
KOCoca Cola1.5818.158.50%2.60%


In order to understand the chart, we have to understand the different elements.

MyPEG

MyPEG is my own variation of the PEG Ratio. A MyPEG of less than one means the stock is cheap relative to its growth. A MyPEG of greater than two means the stock is very expensive relative to its growth. More info on MyPEG in this link.

Forward PE

Forward PE is the Price divided by Forward estimated earnings. When choosing between a stock that has a PE of 15 and a growth rate of 15% vs. a stock that has a PE of 30 and a growth rate of 30% (both have a PEG ratio of 1), I'll prefer the former. The reason is that high PE's are often priced to perfection. Any miss and high PE stocks can get hit very hard. Stocks with Lower PEs have less expectations and have a greater margin of safety. Another reason is that I have more confidence in the forward PE than the 5 yr. estimated growth rate. So the results are better by preferring the lower PE stock given an equivalent PEG or MyPEG because the 5 year growth rate is given less importance. Lastly, stocks can't maintain 30% plus growth for long periods of time, so growers from 15-30% might be preferred.

5 Yr Growth

5 Yr Growth is an estimate by the analysts. As I discussed earlier, the higher the better, though some people such as the legendary Peter Lynch have suggested that buying fast stocks, but not too fast, might be a good idea (from Peter Lynch's One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market).

Yield

The higher yield, the better. If you have a high yield, high growth, and low PE, that's a good combination.











SymbolStock NameEV/EBITDA%Short%Inst. Own
HANSHansen Natural23.8914.70%60.70%
CEDCCentral European Distribution16.5110.20%62.30%
STZConstellation Brands9.8111.40%83.90%
JSDAJones Soda105.6826.30%27.30%
DEODiageo13.420%18.70%
PEPPepsi12.590.60%68.50%
BUDAnheuser-Busch11.170.90%63.00%
KOCoca Cola15.351.30%64.50%



EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value divided by Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. It is another measure of valuation. The lower the Better. A value of 8 or less is very good.

% Short

The higher the percentage, the higher number of people who believe the stock should go down. However, the higher the percentage, the better for those who go long because if good news is to hit a stock, not only does the price go up, but all those people who are shorting have to "cover" (Buy a stock to fulfill their loan obligation to the broker) their short position further fueling the gains. This is often called a "short squeeze".

% Institutional Ownership

People have different theories on this. Some people, like Peter Lynch, prefer a stock without that much institutional ownership. Because once the big mutual funds discover the stock, this could propel the stock to multibagger (make many times your money on your original investment) heights. However, some prefer a higher institutional ownership because that means that mutual funds and other institutional investors are already buying the stock (and may have them in their approved to buy list), and when more money comes in, they may add to their position.

Conclusion

Based on all this and based on just the numbers, Hansen Natural (HANS) and Central European Distribution Corp (CEDC) seem to have the best Growth at a Reasonable Price ratings.

Note that there are other companies that were not looked at including AmBev (ABV), a South American Drink Company, and National Beverage Corp (FIZZ), because there was some missing information. They could still be very good investments, however.