No More Analog Over the Air Broadcasts 2009. Get Ready for Digital TV.

According to the www.dtv2009.gov website:

"At midnight on February 17, 2009, all full-power television stations in the United States will stop broadcasting in analog and switch to 100% digital broadcasting. Digital broadcasting promises to provide a clearer picture and more programming options and will free up airwaves for use by emergency responders."

In order to help consumers, the goverment is providing a TV Convert Box Coupon Program:

"Congress created the TV Converter Box Coupon Program for households wishing to keep using their analog TV sets after February 17, 2009. The Program allows U.S. households to obtain up to two coupons, each worth $40, that can be applied toward the cost of eligible converter boxes.

A TV connected to cable, satellite or other pay TV service does not require a TV converter box from this program.

Consumers have a variety of options. Options to explore include:
1. Keep your existing analog TV and purchase a TV converter box. A converter box plugs into your TV and will keep it working after Feb. 17, 2009, or
2. Connect to cable, satellite or other pay service, or
3. Purchase a television with a digital tuner. "

More information can be found in the DTV 2009 Website.

Can We Profit from This?

I'm still looking at more ways to profit from this trend, but we do know there is a solid trend from Analog to Digital TV.

In a previous blog, we mention a few initial stock options:

1. Corning (GLW) -- Used by Optical Networking and Flat Screen and High Definition HDTVs
   
2. Cisco (CSCO) -- Networking and Set-Top Box exposure.
   
3. NDS Group (NNDS) -- End to end digital technology and services to digital pay-television operators and content providers worldwide.
   
4. Harris Group (HRS) -- Has a Digital TV division and provides emergency communication equipment, broadcast communications and wireless networking.
   

We may revisit this topic some more at a later time.

Do you have any ideas you'd like to share?

Article on: "No Profit Bonanza Likely from TV Cutoff"

Stock Chart: AMTD, Ameritrade, Nice Turnaround (June 18, 2007)

Ameritrade ( AMTD ), has come back nicely after a 1 year downtrend. We recently see the Golden Cross, where the 50 day Moving Average goes above the 200 day Moving Average. The stock also broke above the $19.69 resistance, and the stock is both above the 50 day and 200 day moving average. The turnaround looks intact, though some might argue that the stock may be overextended above the 50 day and 200 day moving average.

To check the status of AMTD on a daily basis, here's a specially formulated stock chart of AMTD.

Turnaround Stock Patterns

If you've been following this blog , you may have noticed that there are many other stocks with similar turnaround patterns. The general idea is that you can draw a downtrend line on the a semi-log chart pattern and see if there is a breakout on good volume. It would also be nice if this breakout coincides with the stock going above either the 50 or 200 day moving average.

Yes, you can't always catch the optimal buy point, but you can still buy a stock if it remains in an uptrend, and if it is above both the 50 and 200 day moving average.

Other Stock Examples

1. GLW (Corning) Chart

2. DELL (Dell) Chart

3. BTU (Peabody Energy) Chart, a Coal Company.

Stock Chart: LVLT (Level 3 Communications) has broken uptrend line? (June 15, 2007)

Level 3 Communications (LVLT), has been on a nice 2 year uptrend. However, recently, it looks like it has gone below the two year uptrend.

Looking closer at a 5 month chart:



We see that LVLT is underneath both the 50 and 200 day moving average, a bearish sign. Another bearish sign is that the 50 day moving average looks like it is about to go under the 200 day moving average (The Death Cross ).

The only positive I can see is that the stock has not breached the $5.20 support yet.


Note on Trend Lines:

Yes, give a chart to several chartists, and they may draw trend lines a bit differently. However, in the case above, the trend line looks correct, as the line is validated by six different points along the line. The Trend line also nicely supports the 200 day moving average.

Alternate Plays/Charts

Alternatively, Corning Incorporated (GLW), might be a good Alternative Play (Annotated Chart)

GLW, Corning Glassware, Good Chart, June 5, 2007

GLW, Corning Glassware looks to have a good chart. Several months ago, it broke out of a year long downtrend. It is currently above both the 50 and 200 day moving average, and has broken out of the old $25.57 resistance. Volume on breakout is not impressive, but GLW's chart is still looking good.

Current HDTV Cycle

Before we look far into the future, let us not forget the current HDTV cycle. People have been adopting HDTV High Definition sets for sometime now.

Current beneficiaries include:
1. GLW -- Corning Glassware
They are involved in Display Technologies.
2. BBY -- Best Buy
Popular Retailer of Electronic equipment including HDTV sets.
3. SNE -- Sony, producer of BluRay products (BluRay is a High Definition DVD)
4. TOSBF -- Toshiba is a maker of more affordable HD-DVD DVD players.
5. NFLX -- Netflix. DVDs by mail company suppotrs BluRay and HD-DVD dvds.

Near term HDTV upgrade cycle:

For those who have experienced HDTV for the first time, you know it is hard to go back to standard definition TV. More and more content will be in High Definition and customers will start to demand it. Those with DVRs will want to be able to play HDTV content (TIVO and Cable and Satellite DVRs have models which support HDTV recordings). People will demand internet video be in high definition video. Consumers will start retiring their old standard definition camcorders for High Definition Camcorders. Consumers will want the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD debate to settle down so consumers will be able to finally buy a BluRay or HD-DVD player to enjoy the movies.

There's an HDTV upgrade cycle coming, and let us pay attention to this trend.