Stock Market Major Triple Top: Big Drop Ahead? Target S&P 600.

The U.S. Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 index is at 1429 (Monday, September 10, 2012), just 10% below the all time closing high of around 1565 on October 2007.

The S&P 500 is nearing very strong overhead resistance, and it couldn't surpass it in 2000 (top #1) and then again in 2007 (top #2) when it could not surpass the all time high of 1565.

What if S&P 500 Can't Break Resistance: Target: S&P Level of 600, a drop of 58% from here.

There is a very bearish technical pattern called the "Triple Top Reversal" 

The pattern is more than establishing three peaks (and the stock market price not exceeding the last peak).  It also requires the stock pattern to reach the Confirmation Line (currently around S&P 700), which marks the previous valleys in the Triple Top pattern.  Some websites and books say the average decline from a triple top reversal pattern is around 15-20% below the Confirmation Line.

But since the time between Major peaks is more than 6 months (many years in the diagram above), the average drop is less reliable, but the pattern does mark a Major Market top.

It is possible if this scenario takes place, this could mean that the market could suffer many more years of difficulty (with stock market crashes and violent rallies).

The Fundamentals and Demographics support this theory:

All around the world, there is a global debt crisis, with countries planning to default on their debt.  The United States now has $16 Trillion in National Debt, which is more than 100% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and currently, there is no sign that the U.S. can control their finances, spending, and revenue.  This number also does not include $62 Trillion in Unfunded Liabilities or Promises to pay (which includes Social Security and Medicare).

The large Baby Boomer demographic is retiring and they will be selling their assets, and also, they will be claiming benefits such as Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare.  The younger generations are supposed to help pick up the slack, but there is not enough to do that, and there is high unemployment among the young adults, and many people are riddled with high debt, underwater mortgages, and ever increasing college tuition.

The Bond rating Agencies, in 2011, for the first time ever, downgraded the U.S. Creditworthiness.

Based on all this (and more), the U.S. Market might be headed towards another lost decade (2000 to 2020)?

S&P 500 Stock Market Crash?: $16 Trillion in National Debt and Bad Demographics

Is the Stock Market and the U.S. S&P 500 in Denial and is a Stock Market Crash Ahead?

Since the great stock market crash of 2008, the U.S. Stock Market has gone up from an S&P 500 low of 683 to 1432 today, September 6, 2012 for a gain of 110%.

However, during the same time, the United States National Debt went from $10.6 Trillion Dollars to today's $15.86 Trillion Dollars for a gain of 50%.

If we look at the ratio of U.S. Debt to GDP (Gross Domestic Product), we went from 74% Debt to GDP towards the end of 2008, to around 101% today, September 6, 2012:

 

 

[Numbers Here]

Is the Stock Market in Denial? 
National Debt and Bad Demographics means Trouble Ahead for the Markets.

The Stock Market has gone up over 100% since the bottom in 2009, but at the same time, the National Debt has reached a record $16 TRILLION, and now, the ratio of U.S. National Debt to GDP is over 100%.

Recently, for the first time ever, the Bond Rating Agencies downgraded the United States Credit Worthiness.

Also, there was a recent budget impasse in the U.S. Government, and the U.S. appears to be nearing a fiscal cliff.

The interest on the national debt alone will top more than $5 trillion over the next decade according to the projections from the Congressional Budget Office.

And there is no sign that this trend will slow down and reverse itself anytime soon, unless drastic and proactive actions are taken.

Bad Demographics:

Bad demographics will make this bad situation worse.   One of the largest demographic groups in the U.S., the Baby Boomers born soon after World War II, are starting to retire and will be claiming Social Security Benefits, and Medicaid benefits.  The Baby Boomers will also be living longer, putting a further strain on the system.

The hope is that the younger generations can fill the gap, but that's a problem, with high young adult unemployment rates, the young having to move home after College, and increasing debt and increasing college tuition costs.  Labor participation as a percentage of population has been decreasing and will continue to decrease, which it makes it more difficult to grow the economy.

Edge of Fiscal Cliff:

We are on the edge of a fiscal cliff, and important very active steps need to be taken to solve this dire financial problem.

The Stock Market could also be in Denial, and there is a risk of a gradual or sudden downturn which may occur soon, or over many years in the future.  There may be many Stock Market Corrections and Crashes and Violent Rallies in our future.

Despite the recent bull market since 2008, we are still in the middle of a Long Term Secular Bear Market.  The Stock Market is currently in Denial with many headwinds from a National Debt Crisis and Unfavorable Demographics.

College Major and Field Salary and Unemployment (2010)

With tuition and higher education costs greatly outpacing inflation, choosing a Field and College Major becomes a more important decision.

Based on the 2010 Census Data and the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, here are the unemployment rates and 25, 50, and 75th percentile incomes based on the Field of Study.

Results Sorted by 50% Percentile Income

Field	Unemployment	25%	50%	75%
ART	7.30%	$28,000.00	$41,000.00	$60,000.00
EDUCATION	3.70%	$33,000.00	$42,000.00	$53,000.00
HUMANITIES	6.85%	$32,000.00	$46,500.00	$70,500.00
SOCIAL SCIENCE	6.30%	$34,500.00	$50,000.00	$73,000.00
SCIENCE AND MATH	4.95%	$35,500.00	$52,000.00	$79,500.00
BUSINESS	5.60%	$38,000.00	$57,500.00	$88,500.00
HEALTH	3.20%	$40,000.00	$58,000.00	$76,000.00
ENGINEERING	5.40%	$50,000.00	$71,000.00	$100,500.00

Results sorted by Unemployment

Field	Unemployment	25%	50%	75%
HEALTH	3.20%	$40,000.00	$58,000.00	$76,000.00
EDUCATION	3.70%	$33,000.00	$42,000.00	$53,000.00
SCIENCE AND MATH	4.95%	$35,500.00	$52,000.00	$79,500.00
ENGINEERING	5.40%	$50,000.00	$71,000.00	$100,500.00
BUSINESS	5.60%	$38,000.00	$57,500.00	$88,500.00
SOCIAL SCIENCE	6.30%	$34,500.00	$50,000.00	$73,000.00
HUMANITIES	6.85%	$32,000.00	$46,500.00	$70,500.00
ART	7.30%	$28,000.00	$41,000.00	$60,000.00

Results not surprising

The Results are not surprising, with Engineering and then Health and Business having the highest median income, and Art and Education having the lowest.

The demand for Health and Education jobs appear to be greater than jobs in the Humanities and Arts.

Full List of Majors, Unemployment and Median Income Here

Here is the full list. This blog categorized the College Major into different categories such as Business and Social Science:

Major Field	Unemployment	25%	50%	75%	Popularity	Field
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION	6.00%	$38,000	$56,000	$85,000	1	Business
GENERAL BUSINESS	5.30%	$38,000	$59,000	$91,000	2	Business
ACCOUNTING	5.40%	$41,000	$61,000	$94,000	3	Business
NURSING	2.20%	$48,000	$60,000	$80,000	4	Health
PSYCHOLOGY	6.10%	$30,000	$43,000	$65,000	5	Social Science
MARKETING AND MARKETING RESEARCH	5.90%	$40,000	$59,000	$90,000	6	Business
COMMUNICATIONS	6.30%	$35,000	$50,000	$81,000	7	Social Science
ELEMENTARY EDUCATION	3.60%	$32,000	$40,000	$49,000	8	Education
GENERAL EDUCATION	4.20%	$31,000	$41,000	$53,000	9	Education
COMPUTER SCIENCE	5.60%	$50,000	$77,000	$102,000	10	Engineering
ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE	6.70%	$32,000	$48,000	$75,000	11	Humanities
FINANCE	4.50%	$44,000	$65,000	$101,000	12	Business
CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND FIRE PROTECTION	4.70%	$36,000 $	50,000	$73,000	13	Social Science
BIOLOGY	5.60%	$35,000	$51,000	$76,000	14	Science and Math
POLITICAL SCIENCE AND GOVERNMENT	6.00%	$38,000	$57,000	$91,000	15	Social Science
ECONOMICS	6.30%	$42,000	$69,000	$108,000	16	Social Science
ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING	5.00%	$60,000	$86,000	$111,000	17	Engineering
HISTORY	6.50%	$34,000	$50,000	$81,000	18	Social Science
SOCIOLOGY	7.00%	$33,000	$45,000	$67,000	19	Social Science
LIBERAL ARTS	7.60%	$32,000	$48,000	$71,000	20	Humanities
COMMERCIAL ART AND GRAPHIC DESIGN	8.10%	$31,000	$45,000	$69,000	21	Art
FINE ARTS	7.40%	$28,000	$44,000	$65,000	22	Art
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING	3.80%	$60,000	$81,000	$106,000	23	Engineering
GENERAL ENGINEERING	5.90%	$47,000	$73,000	$101,000	24	Engineering
JOURNALISM	7.00%	$34,000	$50,000	$79,000	25	Humanities
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY OR GENERAL SCIENCE	4.60%	$36,000	$55,000	$81,000	26	Science and Math
PHYSICAL FITNESS PARKS RECREATION AND LEISURE	4.80%	$33,000	$45,000	$61,000	27	Science and Math
MATHEMATICS	5.00%	$42,000	$63,000	$95,000	28	Science and Math
FAMILY AND CONSUMER SCIENCES	5.10%	$30,000	$40,000	$58,000	29	Social Science
SOCIAL WORK	6.80%	$30,000	$39,000	$51,000	30	Social Science
COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS	5.60%	$44,000	$62,000	$86,000	31	Engineering
CIVIL ENGINEERING	4.90%	$55,000	$76,000	$101,000	32	Engineering
ARCHITECTURE	10.60%	$37,000	$60,000	$85,000	33	Science and Math
TREATMENT THERAPY PROFESSIONS	2.60%	$40,000	$62,000	$81,000	34	Health
MASS MEDIA	6.90%	$32,000	$46,000	$69,000	35	Social Science
CHEMISTRY	5.10%	$39,000	$59,000	$85,000	36	Science
MUSIC	5.20%	$30,000	$45,000	$67,000	37	Art
HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT	5.80%	$32,000	$49,000	$71,000	38	Business
PHYSICAL AND HEALTH EDUCATION TEACHING	4.50%	$34,000	$46,000	$59,000	39	Education
HUMAN RESOURCES AND PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT	6.60%	$40,000	$55,000	$85,000	40	Social Science
ADVERTISING AND PUBLIC RELATIONS	6.10%	$36,000	$50,000	$74,000	41	Business
PHILOSOPHY AND RELIGIOUS STUDIES	7.20%	$30,000	$42,000	$65,000	42	Humanities
FRENCH GERMAN LATIN AND OTHER COMMON FOREIGN LANGUAGE STUDIES	5.90%	$32,000	$48,000	$67,000	43	Humanities
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND STATISTICS	4.20%	$47,000	$71,000	$96,000	44	Engineering
DRAMA AND THEATER ARTS	7.10%	$28,000	$40,000	$60,000	45	Art
THEOLOGY AND RELIGIOUS VOCATIONS	4.10%	$25,000	$38,000	$54,000	46	Humanities
COMPUTER ENGINEERING	7.00%	$58,000	$81,000	$102,000	47	Engineering
ART AND MUSIC EDUCATION	4.20%	$32,000	$41,000	$51,000	48	Art
CHEMICAL ENGINEERING	3.80%	$60,000	$86,000	$117,000	49	Engineering
EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION	4.10%	$28,000	$37,000	$45,000	50	Education
MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES TECHNICIANS	1.40%	$44,000	$58,000	$74,000	51	Health
SPECIAL NEEDS EDUCATION	3.60%	$34,000	$42,000	$50,000	52	Education
PHARMACY PHARMACEUTICAL SCIENCES AND ADMINISTRATION	3.20%	$78,000	$105,000	$121,000	53	Health
FILM VIDEO AND PHOTOGRAPHIC ARTS	7.30%	$30,000	$45,000	$71,000	54	Art
ANTHROPOLOGY AND ARCHEOLOGY	6.90%	$30,000	$40,000	$60,000	55	Social Science
TRANSPORTATION SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGIES	4.40%	$42,000	$68,000	$98,000	56	Science and Math
SECONDARY TEACHER EDUCATION	3.80%	$35,000	$43,000	$59,000	57	Education
LANGUAGE AND DRAMA EDUCATION	5.00%	$32,000	$41,000	$50,000	58	Education
INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING	5.60%	$50,000	$75,000	$100,000	59	Engineering
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE	5.00%	$40,000	$52,000	$76,000	60	Science and Math
MISCELLANEOUS EDUCATION	3.70%	$33,000	$46,000	$65,000	61	Education
GEOGRAPHY	6.10%	$40,000	$54,000	$81,000	62	Social Science
HEALTH AND MEDICAL ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES	4.30%	$36,000	$51,000	$76,000	63	Health
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS & MEDICAL ADMINISTRATION	5.30%	$35,000	$52,000	$81,000	64	Business
ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY	5.50%	$42,000	$65,000	$91,000	65	Engineering
AREA ETHNIC AND CIVILIZATION STUDIES	5.70%	$34,000	$48,000	$76,000	66	Humanities
ANIMAL SCIENCES	5.70%	$26,000	$40,000	$60,000	67	Science and Math
GENERAL SOCIAL SCIENCES	8.20%	$34,000	$50,000	$74,000	68	Social Science
INFORMATION SCIENCES	5.90%	$48,000	$71,000	$95,000	69	Engineering
PHYSICS	4.50%	$39,000	$68,000	$101,000	70	Science and Math
GENERAL AGRICULTURE	3.00%	$28,000	$44,000	$68,000	71	Science and Math
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS	8.50%	$38,000	$52,000	$87,000	72	Business
GEOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCE	5.70%	$41,000	$60,000	$93,000	73	Social Science
GENERAL MEDICAL AND HEALTH SERVICES	5.80%	$35,000	$50,000	$71,000	74	Health
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION AND MANAGEMENT	3.00%	$32,000	$48,000	$71,000	75	Science and Math
CONSTRUCTION SERVICES	5.40%	$49,000	$65,000	$101,000	76	Social Science
HUMAN SERVICES AND COMMUNITY ORGANIZATION	6.90%	$29,000	$38,000	$50,000	77	Social Science
NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT	6.90%	$36,000	$50,000	$71,000	78	Social Science
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS	5.80%	$40,000	$57,000	$93,000	79	Social Science
BUSINESS ECONOMICS	5.00%	$44,000	$71,000	$101,000	80	Business
ART HISTORY AND CRITICISM	6.90%	$33,000	$45,000	$71,000	81	Art
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES	3.10%	$46,000	$67,000	$91,000	82	Engineering
SOCIAL SCIENCE OR HISTORY TEACHER EDUCATION	3.00%	$35,000	$45,000	$58,000	83	Education
STUDIO ARTS	8.00%	$25,000	$37,000	$57,000	84	Arts
PLANT SCIENCE AND AGRONOMY	2.70%	$28,000	$42,000	$71,000	85	Science and Math
TEACHER EDUCATION: MULTIPLE LEVELS	1.10%	$30,000	$38,000	$48,000	86	Education
BIOCHEMICAL SCIENCES	7.10%	$30,000	$48,000	$80,000	87	Science and Math
MISCELLANEOUS ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES	6.00%	$45,000	$65,000	$91,000	88	Engineering
COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES	6.70%	$33,000	$50,000	$73,000	89	Social Science
LINGUISTICS AND COMPARATIVE LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE	10.20%	$30,000	$44,000	$70,000	90	Humanities
PRE-LAW AND LEGAL STUDIES	7.90%	$32,000	$45,000	$69,000	91	Social Science
CRIMINOLOGY	5.20%	$35,000	$50,000	$71,000	92	Social Science
MISCELLANEOUS HEALTH MEDICAL PROFESSIONS	3.30%	$35,000	$45,000	$62,000	93	Health
MICROBIOLOGY	5.20%	$40,000	$60,000	$86,000	94	Science and Math
MEDICAL ASSISTING SERVICES	2.90%	$34,000	$51,000	$71,000	95	Health
INTERDISCIPLINARY SOCIAL SCIENCES	6.30%	$31,000	$40,000	$50,000	96	Social Science
COMPUTER NETWORKING AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS	5.20%	$35,000	$53,000	$76,000	97	Engineering
COMMUNICATION DISORDERS SCIENCES AND SERVICES	3.30%	$32,000	$41,000	$50,000	98	Science and Math
OMPOSITION AND SPEECH	7.70%	$30,000	$40,000	$61,000	99	Humanities
INTERCULTURAL AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES	6.60%	$32,000	$50,000	$71,000	100	Humanities
NUTRITION SCIENCES	6.40%	$35,000	$51,000	$71,000	101	Science and Math
OPERATIONS LOGISTICS AND E-COMMERCE	4.70%	$45,000	$65,000	$97,000	102	Science and Math
VISUAL AND PERFORMING ARTS	9.20%	$20,000	$36,000	$52,000	103	Arts
FORESTRY	3.10%	$38,000	$50,000	$73,000	104	Social Science
AEROSPACE ENGINEERING	3.60%	$60,000	$84,000	$111,000	105	Engineering
MISCELLANEOUS ENGINEERING	7.40%	$42,000	$71,000	$91,000	106	Engineering
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES	5.50%	$34,000	$42,000	$50,000	107	Humanities
MATHEMATICS TEACHER EDUCATION	3.40%	$34,000	$42,000	$56,000	108	Education
ECOLOGY	5.20%	$31,000	$43,000	$60,000	109	Science and Math
COMMUNITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH	4.10%	$31,000	$46,000	$70,000	110	Health
OTHER FOREIGN LANGUAGES	6.40%	$32,000	$45,000	$76,000	111	Humanities
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION	6.90%	$36,000	$50,000	$78,000	112	Social Science
PHYSIOLOGY	4.60%	$30,000	$48,000	$68,000	113	Science and Math
COMPUTER ADMINISTRATION MANAGEMENT AND SECURITY	9.50%	$39,000	$52,000	$75,000	114	Engineering
COSMETOLOGY SERVICES AND CULINARY ARTS	7.30%	$26,000	$41,000	$60,000	115	Art
SCIENCE AND COMPUTER TEACHER EDUCATION	5.00%	$36,000	$47,000	$58,000	116	Education
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES	5.30%	$40,000	$60,000	$91,000	117	Engineering
HUMANITIES	8.40%	$30,000	$45,000	$62,000	118	Humanities
ZOOLOGY	6.70%	$33,000	$55,000	$81,000	119	Science and Math
MISCELLANEOUS PSYCHOLOGY	10.30%	$30,000	$45,000	$71,000	120	Social Science
COMPUTER PROGRAMMING AND DATA PROCESSING	6.20%	$39,000	$55,000	$84,000	121	Engineering
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS	1.30%	$30,000	$57,000	$99,000	122	Social Science
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING RELATED TECHNOLOGIES	6.60%	$38,000	$65,000	$87,000	123	Engineering
MOLECULAR BIOLOGY	5.30%	$32,000	$50,000	$76,000	124	Science and Math
MISCELLANEOUS BIOLOGY	5.30%	$31,000	$50,000	$69,000	125	Science and Math
BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING	6.80%	$39,000	$60,000	$94,000	126	Engineering
ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT	9.20%	$50,000	$71,000	$98,000	127	Engineering
STATISTICS AND DECISION SCIENCE	6.90%	$50,000	$76,000	$108,000	128	Science and Math
FOOD SCIENCE	6.90%	$34,000	$71,000	$101,000	129	Science and Math
HEALTH AND MEDICAL PREPARATORY PROGRAMS	5.20%	$40,000	$60,000	$86,000	130	Health
APPLIED MATHEMATICS	4.10%	$52,000	$71,000	$100,000	131	Science and Math
ENGINEERING MECHANICS PHYSICS AND SCIENCE	6.50%	$40,000	$67,000	$101,000	132	Engineering
COUNSELING PSYCHOLOGY	5.20%	$23,000	$34,000	$42,000	133	Social Science
ELECTRICAL AND MECHANIC REPAIRS AND TECHNOLOGIES	8.40%	$30,000	$44,000	$68,000	134	Science and Math
INDUSTRIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY	10.40%	$45,000	$62,000	$81,000	135	Social Science
MATERIALS ENGINEERING AND MATERIALS SCIENCE	7.70%	$57,000	$84,000	$105,000	136	Engineering
BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING	5.90%	$45,000	$68,000	$101,000	137	Engineering
PETROLEUM ENGINEERING	4.40%	$83,000	$127,000	$178,000	138	Engineering
UNITED STATES HISTORY	15.10%	$30,000	$50,000	$96,000	139	Humanities
ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING	5.80%	$50,000	$71,000	$96,000	140	Engineering
PUBLIC POLICY	2.20%	$47,000	$65,000	$101,000	141	Social Science
NUCLEAR INDUSTRIAL RADIOLOGY AND BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES	2.20%	$47,000	$64,000	$81,000	142	Engineering
MISCELLANEOUS SOCIAL SCIENCES	3.80%	$38,000	$52,000	$85,000	143	Social Science
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING	2.20%	$54,000	$67,000	$90,000	144	Engineering
NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING	1.70%	$60,000	$96,000	$117,000	145	Engineering
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND METEOROLOGY	1.60%	$40,000	$68,000	$101,000	146	Science and Math
BOTANY	6.90%	$26,000	$40,000	$55,000	147	Science and Math
OCEANOGRAPHY	3.30%	$40,000	$50,000	$79,000	148	Science and Math
NUCLEAR ENGINEERING	4.10%	$65,000	$96,000	$138,000	149	Engineering
ACTUARIAL SCIENCE	0.00%	$52,000	$81,000	$116,000	150	Science and Math
COURT REPORTING	4.90%	$36,000	$55,000	$81,000	151	Social Science
METALLURGICAL ENGINEERING	3.90%	$50,000	$86,000	$110,000	152	Engineering
GEOSCIENCES	3.20%	$36,000	$52,000	$71,000	153	Science and Math
NEUROSCIENCE	7.20%	$34,000	$52,000	$76,000	154	Science and Math
SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY	8.80%	$32,000	$45,000	$60,000	155	Social Science
EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY	10.90%	$28,000	$35,000	$51,000	156	Education
PHYSICAL SCIENCES	2.50%	$36,000	$51,000	$68,000	157	Science and Math
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTER SCIENCE	3.50%	$55,000	$91,000	$151,000	158	Engineering
LIBRARY SCIENCE	15.00%	$23,000	$36,000	$49,000	159	Science and Math
MISCELLANEOUS AGRICULTURE	3.70%	$31,000	$46,000	$67,000	160	Science and Math
MATERIALS SCIENCE	4.70%	$65,000	$81,000	$106,000	161	Science and Math
MINING AND MINERAL ENGINEERING	4.30%	$71,000	$101,000	$121,000	162	Engineering
GENETICS	7.40%	$33,000	$71,000	$99,000	163	Science and Math
MISCELLANEOUS FINE ARTS	16.20%	$26,000	$40,000	$49,000	164	Art
SOIL SCIENCE	4.90%	$43,000	$64,000	$81,000	165	Science and Math
GEOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL ENGINEERING	0.00%	$56,000	$73,000	$101,000	166	Engineering
COGNITIVE SCIENCE AND BIOPSYCHOLOGY	4.50%	$36,000	$43,000	$91,000	167	Science and Math
CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY	19.50%	$25,000	$40,000	$61,000	168	Social Science
PHARMACOLOGY	0.00%	$48,000	$60,000	$101,000	169	Health
ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS	0.00%	$56,000	$62,000	$101,000	170	Science and Math
EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION AND SUPERVISION	0.00%	$41,000	$65,000	$89,000	171	Education
SCHOOL STUDENT COUNSELING	0.00%	$18,000	$20,000	$42,000	172	Education
MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES	10.90%	$81,000	$86,000	$126,000	173	Science and Math

Profit from Population Growth: 7 Billion People on Earth

You may have seen the most recent headline that the World Population is now 7 Billion Human Individuals.

Can we profit from this?

1. Water Infrastructure:
   
   Water Infrastructure will be needed to support the growing population.
   You can play this with the PowerShares Global Water Portfolio ETF (PIO) or the Powershares Water Resources ETF (PHO). Individual company names can include companies such as Tetra Tech (TTEK).
   
   
2. Agriculture
   
   The growing population will require more food and more efficient food. You can play this with companies such as Monsanto (MON), the Bio-engineering stock of agriculture. Monsanto even has drought resistant crops, and can also be a play on Global Warming / Climate Change.
   
   Or, you can invest in companies such as Potash (POT), a fertilizer company.
   
   ETFs include Powershare's Global Agriculture ETF (PAGG).
   
   
3. Infrastructure
   
   Infrastructure will need to support the growing population, and there may be more urbanization in the future.
   
   There are many infrastructure companies out there such Siemens (SI), General Electric (GE), and ABB Ltd (ABB)
   
   
4. Environmental Cleanup and Waste
   
   More people means more waste and more industrial waste.
   
   Companies in this sector include Waste Management (WM), Clean Harbors (CLH), and U.S. Ecology (ECOL).
   
   

Undervalued Stocks with Respect to Growth and Yield (PEG+Y Ratio)

As the Stock Market including the U.S. S&P 500 Index goes down, experienced people say you should start creating a wish list of companies to buy at lower levels.

One measure of valuation is the PEG+Y Ratio which is the Forward Price Earnings Ratio divided by the Five Year Estimated Growth Rate Plus Yield:

PEG+Y = (Forward Price Earnings Ratio) / (5 Year Estimated Growth Rate + Yield)

PEGY (simpler form is the PEG Ratio) of less than 1 is a great value. A PEGY ratio of greater than 2 (or some other value like 1.5) can be considered overvalued.

Here are some PEG+Y Ratios of some popular companies:

#	Symbol	Company	PEG+Y	Current Price	Forward P/E	5 Year Growth Rate	Forward Yield
1	CEDC	Central European Distribution	0.15	6.08	7.07	46.62	0.00
2	BTU	Peabody Energy	0.16	31.61	5.56	33.05	1.00
3	SI	Siemens	0.22	86.96	8.37	35.50	3.00
4	FCX	Freeport-McMoran	0.27	29.87	4.99	15.06	3.30
5	AEA	Advance America	0.37	7.12	6.72	15.00	3.40
6	BAC	Bank of America	0.38	5.53	4.61	11.48	0.70
7	LVS	Las Vegas Sands	0.38	36.71	14.86	30.08	0.00
8	VE	Veolia	0.41	13.78	9.44	13.15	10.10
9	NXG	Northgate Minerals	0.42	3.26	15.52	36.80	0.00
10	JPM	JP Morgan	0.44	28.65	5.4	8.96	3.30
11	SHFL	Shuffle Master	0.45	7.74	11.22	25.00	0.00
12	GLW	Corning Glassware	0.46	11.88	6	11.50	1.60
13	HRS	Harris Corp	0.47	33.23	6.09	9.63	3.30
14	CNQ	Canadian Natural Resources	0.49	27.59	7.79	14.70	1.20
15	WFC	Wells Fargo	0.50	23.18	6.94	12.00	2.00
16	ABB	ABB Ltd	0.50	16.42	8.6	13.40	3.90
17	GE	General Electric	0.50	14.69	9.3	14.74	3.90
18	BIDU	Baidu	0.50	105.16	23.9	47.65	0.00
19	AAPL	Apple	0.51	374.6	11.47	22.69	0.00
20	NIHD	NII Holdings Inc.	0.51	25.06	9.49	18.66	0.00
21	NTES	NetEase	0.52	36.35	8.95	17.30	0.00
22	CAT	Caterpillar	0.53	70.55	7.94	12.44	2.50
23	PCLN	Priceline	0.54	445.75	15.23	28.31	0.00
24	GILD	Gilead	0.54	37.81	8.4	15.43	0.00
25	RTN	Raytheon	0.55	39.5	7.22	9.00	4.20
26	INTC	Intel	0.56	20.62	8.35	11.03	3.90
27	SLB	Schlumberger	0.56	57.72	10.67	17.32	1.70
28	GS	Goldman Sachs	0.57	90.08	5.97	9.04	1.50
29	TDG	Transdigm Group	0.57	77.38	14.2	24.97	0.00
30	NFLX	Netflix	0.59	113.25	17.37	29.32	0.00
31	CELG	Celgene	0.59	60.7	14.35	24.16	0.00
32	GEOY	Geo Eye	0.61	27.1	2 10.72	17.50	0.00
33	GOOG	Google	0.61	495.52	11.8	19.21	0.00
34	HCBK	Hudson City Bancorp	0.64	5.31	6.9	5.00	5.70
35	PM	Philip Morris	0.65	61.76	11.88	13.26	4.90
36	SWY	Safeway	0.66	16.32	8.77	9.78	3.50
37	DECK	Deckers	0.67	88.11	15.09	22.50	0.00
38	LOW	Lowe's	0.68	18.98	10.66	12.73	2.90
39	MDRX	AllScripts	0.69	16.99	15.88	23.11	0.00
40	HD	Home Depot	0.71	31.59	11.79	13.51	3.00
41	TRMB	Trimble Navigation	0.73	32.4	2 13.4	18.25	0.00
42	MA	Mastercard	0.74	310.88	14.92	19.84	0.20
43	CSCO	Cisco	0.76	15.19	8.08	9.20	1.50
44	RIG	Transocean	0.76	45.91	7.77	3.65	6.60
45	DEO	Diageo	0.79	75.15	11.82	10.70	4.30
46	TGT	Target	0.82	47.8	11.01	10.96	2.40
47	WMT	Walmart	0.83	51.96	10.63	10.00	2.80
48	AMX	America Movil	0.84	21.5	9.51	9.95	1.40
49	ATVI	Activision	0.85	11.95	12.85	13.68	1.40
50	MO	Altria Group	0.86	26.56	12.13	8.0	0 6.10
51	INFY	Infosys	0.87	50.04	15.44	16.14	1.70
52	CME	Chicago Mercantile Exchange	0.87	248.5	12.76	12.44	2.30
53	IBM	IBM	0.87	173.29	11.74	11.83	1.70
54	CVS	CVS Caremark	0.87	32.97	10.34	10.35	1.50
55	GME	Gamestop	0.88	22.97	7.32	8.34	0.00
56	IGT	International Game Technology	0.89	13.73	12.15	11.99	1.70
57	ECOL	US Ecology	0.90	15.05	14.07	11.00	4.70
58	XOM	Exxon Mobil	0.90	71.15	8.14	6.47	2.60
59	WM	Waste Management	0.90	31.36	12.85	10.00	4.20
60	JACK	Jack in the Box	0.92	19.26	10.82	11.80	0.00
61	WEN	Wendy's	0.92	4.46	19.3	9 19.28	1.70
62	YUM	YUM Brands	1.02	48.45	15.0	9 12.56	2.30
63	PEP	Pepsi	1.06	60.29	12.51	8.55	3.30
64	ERTS	Electronic Arts	1.06	19.76	16.61	15.73	0.00
65	MON	Monsanto	1.08	60.11	17.58	14.30	2.00
66	VCLK	Value Click	1.08	14.92	13.44	12.43	0.00
67	UL	Unilever	1.10	30.56	12.18	7.00	4.10
68	PG	Procter and Gamble	1.12	62.84	13.63	8.90	3.30
69	T	AT&T	1.14	28.16	11.09	3.77	6.00
70	MCD	McDonalds	1.14	86.02	15.06	10.01	3.20
71	QSII	Quality Systems	1.15	92.11	26.85	21.95	1.40
72	SNDA	Shanda Interactive	1.17	28.86	15.86	13.53	0.00
73	K	Kellogg	1.18	52.88	13.95	8.65	3.20
74	GIS	General Mills	1.24	37.96	13.41	7.60	3.20
75	SWK	Stanley Black and Decker	1.26	48.25	7.91	3.00	3.30
76	YHOO	Yahoo	1.27	13.53	16.3	12.84	0.00
77	HMSY	HMS Holdings	1.27	22.95	31.01	24.33	0.00
78	JNJ	Johnson and Johnson	1.28	62.08	11.74	5.58	3.60
79	HAIN	Hain Celestial	1.28	28.31	16.27	12.70	0.00
80	PCP	Precision Castparts	1.28	148.33	14.29	11.05	0.10
81	HRL	Hormel Foods	1.31	26.53	14.99	9.50	1.90
82	ISRG	Intuitive Surgical	1.39	348.76	25.81	18.62	0.00
83	KO	Coca Cola	1.42	65.42	15.29	8.00	2.80
84	HANS	Hansen Natural	1.43	79.76	22.4	15.70	0.00
85	WFM	Whole Foods	1.44	62.44	27.75	18.70	0.60
86	CERN	Cerner	1.48	65.56	29.53	19.89	0.00
87	SGMS	Scientific Games	1.50	6.63	14.41	9.63	0.00
88	COST	Costco	1.52	81.63	21.26	12.77	1.20
89	GRMN	Garmin	1.56	30.6	14.17	4.10	5.00
90	COP	Conoco Philips	1.61	60.99	7.07	0.20	4.20
91	CMG	Chipotle Mexican Grill	1.65	292.7	33.88	20.50	0.00
92	CLH	Clean Harbors	1.69	47.83	20.18	11.93	0.00
93	AMT	American Towers	1.98	52.86	38.58	19.46	0.00
94	AMZN	Amazon	2.39	211.98	66.24	27.67	0.00
95	RGR	Sturm Ruger	5.80	24.63	12.76	0.00	2.20

End of World Portfolio: Gold, Guns, and Spam: Outperforming

Some people say that the End of the World Portfolio consists of "Gold, Guns, and Spam".

To evaluate these, we will compare the S&P 500 compared to Gold (GLD), Guns (RGR: Sturm Ruger, maker of firearms), and Spam (HRL, Hormel, maker of Spam).

(Dividends not taken into consideration):

1. First Major Downturn: October 2007 to September 22, 2011:
   
   
   
   • S&P 500: -27.83%
     
   • GLD: +131.29%
     
   • HRL: +57.62%
     
   • RGR: +68.98%
     
   
   
   During this time period, the "End of the World Portfolio" trounced the US Market S&P 500 index.
   
   
2. Downturn Peak to Trough: October 29, 2007 to March 9, 2009:
   
   
   
   • S&P 500: -51.83%
     
   • GLD: +24.23%
     
   • HRL: -14.97%
     
   • RGR: -44.86%
     
   
   
   From Peak to Trough, 2007 to 2009, the End of World Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. We do see that the more traditional defensive GLD and HRL did better in the downturn than RGR.
   
   
3. Recent Peak to Now: July 7, 2011 to September 22, 2011:
   
   
   
   • S&P 500: -16.63%
     
   • GLD: +13.34%
     
   • HRL: -10.01%
     
   • RGR: +23.2%
     
   
   
   

Hormel (HRL) has a forward PE 15.11, a Forward Yield of 1.80%, and a 5 year estimated growth rate of 9.50% for a PEG+Y ratio of: 1.3

Sturm Ruger (RGR) has a forward PE of 15, a Forward Yield of 1.90%, and an unknown 5 year estimated growth rate.

Idea #6: AEA: Cash Advance Centers: Profit from Bad Times and Living Paycheck to Paycheck

Simple Idea #6: AEA: Advance America, Cash Advance Centers: Profit from Bad Times, Recession, Unemployment, and Living Paycheck to Paycheck

• TICKER: AEA
  
• SECTOR: Financial Services, Loans, Credit Services
  
• GROWTH THEME: Bad times are with us with risks of recession, continued high unemployment and people continuing to live paycheck to paycheck. AEA, Advance America, Cash Advance America provides short term loans, cash advances, and credit improvement services.
  
• MARKET CAP: $500 Million
  
• FORWARD PE: 7.75
  
• ESTIMATED 5 YEAR GROWTH: 15%
  
• FORWARD YIELD: 3%
  
• PEG+Y GROWTH: 0.43 (Very Good: < 1.0)
  
• PERCENT ABOVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE: 3.8%
  
• PERCENT ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE: 35%